NFL · resolved market
Buccaneers vs. Saints: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bd9df5ffcb68eefdf87321e7404de2d52c189a14afc311b3e010850dce3f63d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Under | 51c | 69,127$35,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,928.27 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 49c | 19,564$9,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,503.31 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 49c | 12,919$6,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,324.8 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 49c | 7,030$3,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,441.79 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Over | 48c | 5,133$2,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,463.84 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 3,133$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.04 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 2,592$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.64 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 49c | 2,574$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.78 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 1,155$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.01 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea11…551abacked Under | 53c | 1,060$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…7372backed Over | 47c | 1,060$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 49c | 1,003$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.25 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Under | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4874…7123backed Over | 47c | 867.9$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…7a01backed Under | 53c | 867.9$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Over | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Under | 51c | 584.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.9 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Under | 52c | 383.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.35 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 52c | 205.93$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.85 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2738…6412backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 48c | 151$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 99.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a2…1a06backed Over | 48c | 75.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…de85backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…8df9backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Over | 47c | 21.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Buccaneers vs. Saints: O/U 46.5this page
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Buccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. SaintsBuccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. Saints: 1H MoneylineBuccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. Saints: O/U 47.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Saints: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)Buccaneers won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)Buccaneers won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5)Buccaneers won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-6.5)Buccaneers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.