NFL · resolved market
Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe46d5215bec86897fe083c17e12963c72e621515561f114b42e8042df711dd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buccaneersof Buccaneers, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Buccaneers | 47c | 7,755$3,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,107.57 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Saints | 54c | 7,633$4,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,096.61 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Saints | 53c | 5,100$2,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,703 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…45dbbacked Buccaneers | 47c | 3,969$1,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,101.07 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Saints | 52c | 3,741$1,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,945.12 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Buccaneers | 47c | 3,272$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.11 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Buccaneers | 46c | 3,162$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.25 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Saints | 54c | 1,850$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Buccaneers | 46c | 1,083$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.76 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Saints | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Buccaneers | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Saints | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Buccaneers | 46c | 906$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.24 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Saints | 54c | 804.5$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.43 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Saints | 54c | 599.07$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.5 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa71a…e4e2backed Buccaneers | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.91 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…3ba6backed Buccaneers | 48c | 513.81$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.18 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Saints | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…94abbacked Buccaneers | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2a…4ab7backed Buccaneers | 47c | 348.57$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.74 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Buccaneers | 47c | 321.45$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.75 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Saints | 53c | 319.14$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.14 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Saints | 53c | 257.9$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.14 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Saints | 52c | 243.18$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.45 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Saints | 53c | 225$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Buccaneers | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Buccaneers | 46c | 195.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Saints | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Saints | 54c | 186$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Buccaneers | 46c | 177$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.58 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Buccaneers | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Buccaneers | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Saints | 52c | 63.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Buccaneers | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Saints | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Saints | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a5…983cbacked Saints | 55c | 26.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Buccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. SaintsBuccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. Saints: 1H MoneylineBuccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. Saints: O/U 46.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Saints: O/U 47.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Saints: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)Buccaneers won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5)Buccaneers won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-6.5)Buccaneers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.