NFL · resolved market
Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe036651769bdb89d422901124465b3cf0109121dcacd8880547ba56097db55fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buccaneersof Buccaneers, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $243,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $244,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3657…6b14backed Saints | 56c | 180,000$100,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100,799.95 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Buccaneers | 44c | 160,946$70,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90,129.82 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a5…122bbacked Buccaneers | 44c | 49,345$21,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,546.66 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Saints | 56c | 33,987$19,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,032.7 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Buccaneers | 44c | 18,100$7,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,136 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Buccaneers | 44c | 5,597$2,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,108.58 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Saints | 55c | 5,185$2,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851.99 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Saints | 55c | 5,053$2,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,779.1 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Saints | 55c | 3,269$1,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,797.86 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Saints | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Saints | 56c | 2,617$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.16 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…881ebacked Buccaneers | 44c | 2,014$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Saints | 56c | 1,177$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.85 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Saints | 56c | 1,028$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.63 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Saints | 56c | 715$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Buccaneers | 45c | 600$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 163 | 44.8%73 W · 90 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked Saints | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Saints | 56c | 410.71$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Buccaneers | 44c | 393.54$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.98 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Saints | 56c | 375.52$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.29 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Buccaneers | 40c | 373.09$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.77 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Saints | 55c | 352.19$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.71 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Saints | 51c | 323.66$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.82 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Saints | 56c | 310$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…1a28backed Buccaneers | 45c | 305.56$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Buccaneers | 44c | 230$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Buccaneers | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd7…51fcbacked Buccaneers | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Buccaneers | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d6…230fbacked Buccaneers | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e54…10e2backed Buccaneers | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Buccaneers | 45c | 180$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67e3…e5b3backed Saints | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…9568backed Saints | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Buccaneers | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Buccaneers | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc597…e662backed Saints | 57c | 110.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Saints | 52c | 104.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…ab50backed Buccaneers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0e…3311backed Buccaneers | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Saints | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Saints | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Saints | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…3800backed Buccaneers | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Buccaneers | 43c | 87.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11bb…bf79backed Saints | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Buccaneers | 54c | 86.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Buccaneers | 43c | 82.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…7345backed Saints | 56c | 73.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…3ba6backed Buccaneers | 45c | 66.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39ae…0268backed Buccaneers | 44c | 62.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…4891backed Buccaneers | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Buccaneers | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75c4…4cd0backed Saints | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…4f7cbacked Saints | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Buccaneers | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…b62cbacked Buccaneers | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 47cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Saints | 55c | 46.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Buccaneers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…379bbacked Buccaneers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…287cbacked Buccaneers | 44c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Saints | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Saints | 56c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Saints | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Saints | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…1ab2backed Saints | 56c | 22.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…4c0bbacked Saints | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…8e11backed Saints | 57c | 19.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Buccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. SaintsBuccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. Saints: 1H MoneylineBuccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. Saints: O/U 46.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Saints: O/U 47.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Saints: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)Buccaneers won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)Buccaneers won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-6.5)Buccaneers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.