TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Buccaneers vs. Saints

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Buccaneersof Buccaneers, Saints
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,847,493
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,897,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,847,493 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 528 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Saints36c643,840$229,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229,941.4817041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed88…f3c4backed Buccaneers65c426,573$275,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150,800.468344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e25…d49ebacked Saints35c149,406$52,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,292.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Buccaneers65c120,000$77,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,299.9631240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Buccaneers68c117,982$79,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,183.9547738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Saints34c91,185$31,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,314.847035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Buccaneers64c85,555$54,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,799.812352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Saints12c78,636$9,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,373.9920026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Buccaneers66c44,067$29,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,057.438946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Saints35c40,216$14,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,075.6917454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Buccaneers64c39,988$25,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,395.624652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96e1…50aabacked Buccaneers66c35,667$23,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,990.23748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Saints35c35,136$12,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,139.4722950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Saints34c30,355$10,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,436.6961148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0b…9f41backed Buccaneers64c30,332$19,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,919.561973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Saints35c30,000$10,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,532.9510026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2232…f6fabacked Buccaneers67c26,019$17,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,618.662470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Buccaneers65c23,077$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,076.925464.8%35 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+32.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Saints35c21,845$7,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,645.7919553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Saints36c21,042$7,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,680.113040%12 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Buccaneers66c20,000$13,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,80013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x188c…c62bbacked Buccaneers66c18,761$12,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,378.612564%16 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1304…8bf1backed Buccaneers65c18,464$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,464.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Saints34c16,692$5,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,674.2353348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8b…aa7ebacked Saints33c16,449$5,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,401333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Saints34c16,214$5,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,512.89944.4%44 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Saints34c15,435$5,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,248.0524957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Saints35c15,218$5,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,263.618343.4%36 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Buccaneers67c15,000$10,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9505446.3%25 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Saints0c14,185$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.937733.8%26 W · 51 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3461…4629backed Buccaneers75c14,000$10,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4403100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+319.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Saints24c12,868$3,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,041.7841947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Saints31c11,744$3,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,665.922552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Buccaneers74c10,914$8,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,830.6712138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x132a…abe8backed Saints13c10,833$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.481526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Saints18c10,704$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,880.0430043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Buccaneers70c10,625$7,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,228.587255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Saints33c10,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.9418435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Saints30c9,359$2,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,816.2268446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Buccaneers64c8,800$5,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,16883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Saints1c8,206$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.831486.8%10 W · 138 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+296.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Buccaneers79c8,127$6,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,676.4144652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Saints27c8,120$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,225.423268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Saints0c8,040$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.121128%9 W · 103 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+413.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa117…a311backed Buccaneers67c8,000$5,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6401861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Buccaneers64c7,944$5,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,889.673056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Saints35c7,600$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,66013142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Buccaneers63c6,480$4,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,397.6524351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d06…d48ebacked Buccaneers66c6,402$4,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,154.35633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-45.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab9e…302dbacked Buccaneers67c6,300$4,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Saints34c6,150$2,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,097.8133553.4%179 W · 156 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Saints2c6,000$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.63424.8%2 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-65.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Saints1c5,912$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.961969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Buccaneers75c5,901$4,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.4731056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe42e…8d89backed Saints34c5,813$1,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,976.421553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7509…4b9dbacked Saints37c5,473$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003630.6%11 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Buccaneers65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7503979.5%31 W · 8 L+7.2wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xa576…89a4backed Buccaneers65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,750742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc448…5928backed Saints35c5,000$1,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.46616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Buccaneers66c4,768$3,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.1112152.1%63 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f26…be98backed Buccaneers66c4,756$3,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,617.071764.7%11 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb82…b7abbacked Buccaneers67c4,400$2,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,452560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Saints34c4,110$1,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.6886547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e9a…5b99backed Buccaneers73c4,108$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.273360.6%20 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Saints34c4,106$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.4414951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Saints33c4,100$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.2783447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa447…cc98backed Buccaneers67c3,582$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.09666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86a3…33dbbacked Saints34c3,348$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.32944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc03…1548backed Buccaneers65c3,086$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.946624.2%16 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+81.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Buccaneers66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02030446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Buccaneers65c3,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05024056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf982…915abacked Saints34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9621…b76cbacked Buccaneers65c3,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0401450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d8…ad91backed Buccaneers66c2,968$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.856045%27 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Buccaneers65c2,902$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.9241248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Saints35c2,857$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012550.4%63 W · 62 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab18…d7fabacked Saints35c2,700$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e38…bc11backed Saints33c2,344$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Saints34c2,250$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.6214443.8%63 W · 81 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Buccaneers78c2,242$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.6460049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd547…8a9fbacked Saints17c2,120$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3682740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bba…ea6bbacked Saints26c2,092$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.07650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Saints1c2,021$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.994311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x205b…dd3cbacked Buccaneers65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70014148.2%68 W · 73 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Saints18c1,913$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.4719235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Buccaneers64c1,907$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.528550.6%43 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Saints33c1,884$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.1731854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa225…b903backed Buccaneers75c1,864$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.331573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+38.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7439…d028backed Buccaneers66c1,748$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.232142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7592…f661backed Buccaneers60c1,665$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6665736.8%21 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…92ccbacked Saints34c1,615$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5494341.9%18 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Saints13c1,583$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5127348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Saints32c1,570$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.616254.9%89 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04eb…36a7backed Buccaneers65c1,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.4619361.7%119 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf744…7392backed Buccaneers66c1,515$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.15850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Saints34c1,471$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.146233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-25.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Saints34c1,471$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.1414035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1ff…1e37backed Saints34c1,449$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.730%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1f2…f133backed Buccaneers67c1,449$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.05540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x058b…1cd1backed Saints35c1,429$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.