Mls · resolved market
New England Revolution vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c1e8856a43b18e283b9a477949dd53efcce84a83cbf46558d091dbe25c1f78f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 25c | 17,812$4,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,531.02 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 29c | 8,297$2,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,426.8 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 75c | 6,457$4,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.18 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 74c | 4,199$3,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.72 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 75c | 3,833$2,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.65 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 3,019$2,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.85 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 74c | 3,010$2,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.39 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 29c | 2,077$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 75c | 2,009$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.92 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 70c | 1,963$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.31 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 71c | 941.39$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.41 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 45c | 936.4$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 28c | 767.86$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 70c | 620.5$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.15 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 72c | 578.77$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.06 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 25c | 540.88$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.22 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Over | 25c | 504.76$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.19 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 67c | 402.8$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.59 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 19c | 382.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 55c | 350$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 70c | 284.01$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 74c | 254.95$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 71c | 242$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 71c | 176$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 71c | 173.8$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 70c | 172.28$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 73c | 138$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked Under | 74c | 136.55$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 61cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 70c | 122.23$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 43c | 115.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 110.28$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 74c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 72c | 106.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 26c | 81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 72c | 77.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…810cbacked Over | 31c | 64.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 73c | 60.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 70c | 58.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 62c | 55.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 63c | 50.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed Under | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…d948backed Under | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…3419backed Under | 74c | 41.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 71c | 41.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 31c | 37.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 72c | 35.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0497…c5e3backed Over | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 70c | 28.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 74c | 25.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…af73backed Under | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 70c | 22.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 70c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 73c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed35…84fbbacked Under | 73c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Under | 70c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 70c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 73c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a2…7460backed Under | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 70c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New England Revolution vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5this page
- New England Revolution vs. Nashville SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New England Revolution vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- New England Revolution vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- New England Revolution vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.