Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cf16b35688b7b6746e0ef8c55c93d3e5a13b331cbeb4ff906e9fc024a6ea1af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aston Villa FCof Aston Villa FC, Liverpool FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aston Villa FC | 61c | 4,969$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.77 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Aston Villa FC | 24c | 3,768$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,864.52 | 812 | 34.7%282 W · 530 L | -24.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Liverpool FC | 71c | 2,427$1,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715.86 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Liverpool FC | 78c | 2,276$1,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,769.1 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Liverpool FC | 2c | 1,994$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Aston Villa FC | 14c | 1,954$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.44 | 953 | 32.5%310 W · 643 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Liverpool FC | 77c | 1,948$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 205 | 45.4%93 W · 112 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Aston Villa FC | 15c | 1,600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…719abacked Aston Villa FC | 15c | 1,162$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.82 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Liverpool FC | 9c | 696.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Aston Villa FC | 23c | 632.34$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.69 | 578 | 47.8%276 W · 302 L | +18.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…5d90backed Aston Villa FC | 71c | 562.1$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…3cb6backed Aston Villa FC | 16c | 480.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Liverpool FC | 32c | 454.83$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.83 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Aston Villa FC | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.55 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Liverpool FC | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 137 | 21.2%29 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Aston Villa FC | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 114 | 37.7%43 W · 71 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Aston Villa FC | 23c | 274.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.74 | 102 | 29.4%30 W · 72 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Aston Villa FC | 22c | 261$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.88 | 1,923 | 42.4%815 W · 1,108 L | -42.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Aston Villa FC | 21c | 194.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.98 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Liverpool FC | 73c | 168.78$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.63 | 144 | 63.2%91 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Aston Villa FC | 26c | 154.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Aston Villa FC | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Aston Villa FC | 24c | 134.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Liverpool FC | 28c | 112.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Liverpool FC | 11c | 108.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Aston Villa FC | 25c | 96.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Liverpool FC | 39c | 89.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 541 | 32.9%178 W · 363 L | -28.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Aston Villa FC | 15c | 88.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.02 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Liverpool FC | 39c | 83.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…f151backed Aston Villa FC | 46c | 83.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +271.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Aston Villa FC | 14c | 74.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 189 | 28%53 W · 136 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Aston Villa FC | 43c | 70.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Aston Villa FC | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5362…d242backed Liverpool FC | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Aston Villa FC | 75c | 62.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Aston Villa FC | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 317 | 46.1%146 W · 171 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…9886backed Liverpool FC | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Liverpool FC | 31c | 48.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Liverpool FC | 77c | 48.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa070…c103backed Aston Villa FC | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Liverpool FC | 76c | 40.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 316 | 48.7%154 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Liverpool FC | 79c | 30.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Liverpool FC | 79c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 279 | 48%134 W · 145 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…d960backed Liverpool FC | 76c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b92…2241backed Aston Villa FC | 75c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8634…1b5bbacked Liverpool FC | 76c | 16.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Liverpool FC | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Liverpool FC won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.