Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ba3ccc594714b5eaaf1890e496a43d7dd31954247909848548b2f53b664f795
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aston Villa FCof Liverpool FC, Aston Villa FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Liverpool FC | 0c | 10,440$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ab…97b6backed Liverpool FC | 18c | 6,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Liverpool FC | 18c | 4,816$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.64 | 857 | 48.5%416 W · 441 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Liverpool FC | 17c | 4,734$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.3 | 914 | 35.3%323 W · 591 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…cf29backed Liverpool FC | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Liverpool FC | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Liverpool FC | 1c | 2,331$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Liverpool FC | 15c | 1,354$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.17 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Liverpool FC | 15c | 1,310$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.44 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Liverpool FC | 19c | 999.97$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Liverpool FC | 18c | 837.78$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 114 | 37.7%43 W · 71 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Liverpool FC | 19c | 744.53$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.46 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Liverpool FC | 14c | 599.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 593 | 32.9%195 W · 398 L | -30.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…4a85backed Liverpool FC | 19c | 399.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Liverpool FC | 18c | 398.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed Liverpool FC | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -7.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…0efebacked Liverpool FC | 19c | 255.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…4930backed Liverpool FC | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Liverpool FC | 6c | 196.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Liverpool FC | 15c | 156.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3708…7c65backed Liverpool FC | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5c…aaf7backed Liverpool FC | 9c | 142.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Liverpool FC | 18c | 119.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Liverpool FC | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…ec88backed Liverpool FC | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Liverpool FC | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…d728backed Liverpool FC | 15c | 97.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Aston Villa FC | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,636 | 52.9%866 W · 770 L | +32.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…95f3backed Liverpool FC | 19c | 68.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Liverpool FC | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ef…26adbacked Aston Villa FC | 79c | 50.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa72b…6834backed Liverpool FC | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +295.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Liverpool FC | 21c | 48.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Aston Villa FC | 79c | 25.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…9426backed Aston Villa FC | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Liverpool FC won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.