Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d6249c29b754098c7ca2faf7693fcf58ff7f81ad9d447213a54550cb5c8096d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 3c | 554.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 17c | 389.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 347.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 29c | 305.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 286.58$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…fb20backed Yes | 68c | 253$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.38 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 47c | 249.92$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.35 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 22c | 206$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 202.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 47c | 200.48$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.22 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 55c | 179.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 179$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.34 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 174.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.34 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 44c | 159.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.29 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 153.28$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 151.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 144.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 129.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 59c | 129.31$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 116.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 45c | 116$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.16 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…2f9cbacked No | 53c | 115.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 106.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 46c | 97.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 48c | 90.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 57c | 88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 22c | 84.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 46c | 75.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 74.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 56c | 71.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 46c | 64.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 44c | 52.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 53c | 52.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 48c | 51.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 50c | 50.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 40c | 48.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57c2…792dbacked Yes | 45c | 48.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 56c | 45.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 45.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 67c | 45.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 49c | 44.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 45c | 43.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 42.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 55c | 40.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 46c | 40.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe16…d380backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 47c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 41c | 38.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 37.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 54c | 36.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 40c | 36.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 45c | 33.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 56c | 32.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 70c | 31.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 47c | 31.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 43c | 30.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…5f37backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a7…dfb2backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…66dbbacked Yes | 69c | 29.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x026e…4345backed Yes | 69c | 27.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 43c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 62c | 25.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 63c | 25.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 54c | 22.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 59c | 20.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 74c | 19.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.