NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dc7381b9223da6ac06fbbeb0a1a38271c24f4fde56fd8ca9f4909870a8e789f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Raptors, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $266,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $268,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Raptors | 54c | 226,128$121,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121,534.74 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 150,000$69,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81,000 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 31,117$14,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,799.91 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 24,000$11,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,480 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a0…42a3backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 13,500$6,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,155 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x088b…bce1backed Raptors | 53c | 13,500$7,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,155 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 42c | 8,338$3,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,860.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 8,158$3,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,405.21 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Trail Blazers | 46c | 6,500$2,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,510 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…cf3abacked Raptors | 54c | 5,168$2,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,790.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 4,958$2,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,634.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Raptors | 55c | 4,550$2,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,502.49 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 4,215$1,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,330.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 4,180$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,257.2 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Raptors | 65c | 4,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Raptors | 54c | 1,946$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.74 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Trail Blazers | 46c | 1,739$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.13 | 419 | 54.4%228 W · 191 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306a…0d29backed Raptors | 56c | 1,690$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.4 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 1,600$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Raptors | 55c | 1,364$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 898$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.92 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Trail Blazers | 44c | 716.54$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.94 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f8…09f7backed Raptors | 54c | 684.5$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.63 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 594.71$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.81 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Raptors | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 448.95$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.25 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Raptors | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 361.21$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.51 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Trail Blazers | 33c | 360.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.79 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Raptors | 54c | 299.98$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.99 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Raptors | 55c | 280$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors | 46c | 269.09$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.78 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 631 | 42%265 W · 366 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Raptors | 54c | 210$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 199$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Raptors | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…d8cabacked Raptors | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 127.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.68 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Raptors | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Raptors | 55c | 105.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Raptors | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…582ebacked Raptors | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…29f7backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 89.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Raptors | 56c | 88.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 83.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Raptors | 54c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc6…bfb4backed Raptors | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Raptors | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…522bbacked Trail Blazers | 46c | 63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Raptors | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5009backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 58.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…79cbbacked Raptors | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Raptors | 55c | 57.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Raptors | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Raptors | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33a…223fbacked Raptors | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 40.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…87cfbacked Raptors | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Raptors | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…79febacked Raptors | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Raptors | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…b5a2backed Raptors | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Raptors | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f48…c93ebacked Raptors | 55c | 23.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Raptors | 55c | 22.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Raptors | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Raptors | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Trail Blazers vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Trail Blazers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.