South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-08-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ebf2fd1d701b9f075ac5016ad094ab97a3096f4464c2b2d8d883ec79190dff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Yes | 24c | 110,000$26,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,799.89 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 78c | 79,172$61,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,353.96 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 20,675$14,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,754.85 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 58c | 4,196$2,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.38 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed No | 58c | 1,908$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.48 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +112%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 60c | 1,734$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.11 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 65c | 1,568$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.95 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 71c | 1,278$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.65 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7725backed Yes | 42c | 1,275$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…0e48backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 124 | 34.7%43 W · 81 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 62c | 706.5$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.47 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 51c | 560.22$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.51 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 44c | 532.83$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.68 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Yes | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 65c | 489$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.52 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 465.32$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.83 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 72c | 402.57$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.03 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 73c | 388.36$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.11 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 49c | 322.96$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.25 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 35c | 295$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.25 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9661…36f6backed Yes | 43c | 286$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.92 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed No | 69c | 276.56$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.64 | 193 | 49.2%95 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 53c | 266.58$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.1 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 64c | 242.44$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 10c | 237.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 71c | 207.07$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…ef8ebacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed No | 74c | 190.26$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 126 | 62.7%79 W · 47 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea88…261abacked Yes | 48c | 190.01$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 14c | 167.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Yes | 11c | 166.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…eeabbacked Yes | 48c | 126.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…7fcdbacked Yes | 48c | 109.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 62c | 101.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 264 | 65.9%174 W · 90 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4c…1940backed Yes | 44c | 94.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 51c | 89.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 49c | 76.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 74c | 76.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 34c | 68.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…3566backed No | 71c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…96fbbacked Yes | 38c | 51.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc7…3ca3backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…7337backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5783…429dbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked No | 50c | 39.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 35c | 36.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9299…8f9cbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607d…a8f6backed Yes | 32c | 34.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 37c | 29.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 51c | 28.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 49c | 27.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…7b22backed No | 70c | 21.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…960bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ab…81bbbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 61c | 19.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf458…f266backed No | 71c | 17.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-08-16?this page
- Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Santos FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Santos FC win on 2026-08-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.