TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Dubai Tennis Championships: Otto Virtanen vs Tallon Griekspoor

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Griekspoorof Virtanen, Griekspoor
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$329,280
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$413,799

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $329,280 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x160b…4296backed Griekspoor55c28,906$15,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,939.781,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed Griekspoor60c27,200$16,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,8803574.3%26 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83d2…d196backed Virtanen46c25,000$11,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,435.1910650%53 W · 53 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Virtanen24c23,519$5,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,689.232,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Virtanen30c20,602$6,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,276.82,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Griekspoor80c18,107$14,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,706.6127460.2%165 W · 109 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Virtanen42c14,952$6,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,212.5311,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Virtanen31c13,368$4,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,104.027,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Virtanen32c11,955$3,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,857.3681349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9a…412ebacked Griekspoor61c9,628$5,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,729.4113439.6%53 W · 81 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Virtanen43c7,927$3,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,396.382650%13 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Virtanen46c7,000$3,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,22012147.1%57 W · 64 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Virtanen23c5,085$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.92,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b3…be68backed Griekspoor58c4,616$2,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,938.844040%16 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-27.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Griekspoor79c4,427$3,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.762,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Griekspoor79c4,410$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.0136968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed Griekspoor74c4,344$3,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.443070%21 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+25.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c2f…499cbacked Virtanen31c3,843$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.8510345.6%47 W · 56 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Virtanen44c3,636$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60076140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Griekspoor54c3,458$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,582.141,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Virtanen44c3,422$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50044754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Virtanen40c2,609$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.932,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Griekspoor55c2,591$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.6824643.9%108 W · 138 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Virtanen44c2,483$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.341,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Virtanen42c2,475$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03639431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Griekspoor54c2,171$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.0840744%179 W · 228 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Griekspoor78c2,161$1,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.9764755.2%357 W · 290 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa569…08dfbacked Virtanen44c2,000$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.234936.7%18 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Virtanen28c1,933$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.226,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Virtanen4c1,826$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.656,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ce…99f6backed Virtanen22c1,804$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40017936.9%66 W · 113 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x463e…fa8ebacked Griekspoor56c1,607$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.084763.8%30 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Griekspoor60c1,600$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.2866949.6%332 W · 337 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked Griekspoor73c1,501$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.113260.6%80 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Virtanen40c1,500$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.54,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50ec…c1f5backed Griekspoor60c1,462$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.7715862.7%99 W · 59 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Virtanen42c1,397$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.893055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Griekspoor60c1,330$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.141,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Virtanen23c1,277$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.72,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf1…99d3backed Griekspoor60c1,274$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.8538652.3%202 W · 184 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa661…eb28backed Griekspoor60c1,209$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.614047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Virtanen42c1,200$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.971,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Virtanen43c1,154$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Griekspoor62c1,138$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.641233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-45.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb84…08a9backed Griekspoor61c1,106$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.619855.1%54 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Virtanen19c1,054$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.2675748.6%368 W · 389 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba86…9ab0backed Griekspoor61c1,001$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.4567239.1%263 W · 409 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Virtanen46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46022449.6%111 W · 113 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Virtanen40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40057645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Griekspoor54c999.99$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4606149.2%30 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Griekspoor67c999$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.4497046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Griekspoor59c992.86$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.621,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Virtanen37c965.46$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.4435932.6%117 W · 242 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Griekspoor55c965.1$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.355653.6%30 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbebf…9baebacked Griekspoor69c898.71$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.7190854.5%495 W · 413 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Virtanen36c856.99$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.7749632.3%160 W · 336 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Griekspoor60c819.52$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.811,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Griekspoor58c807$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.9465157.1%372 W · 279 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Griekspoor63c793.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.6552460.9%319 W · 205 L+0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Griekspoor54c743.3$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.31,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Griekspoor64c741.31$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.674,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Griekspoor72c713$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.6573745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b4…150ebacked Griekspoor68c657.04$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.8514947%70 W · 79 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Griekspoor69c653.24$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.2437444.1%165 W · 209 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Griekspoor63c639.84$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.052,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Griekspoor54c626.61$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.2420542.4%87 W · 118 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Griekspoor67c624$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.161,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Virtanen2c621.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.891,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb58…a62ebacked Griekspoor61c526.95$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.5121767.7%147 W · 70 L-0.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Griekspoor60c510$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.916033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Virtanen41c503$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.738133.9%129 W · 252 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Virtanen18c487.76$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.492,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dd7…a8adbacked Virtanen43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Griekspoor54c462.02$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5378152.8%412 W · 369 L+21.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed Griekspoor58c450$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18913560.7%82 W · 53 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Virtanen40c449$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.497,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Griekspoor61c433.33$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16981938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Virtanen46c431$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.261,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Griekspoor72c427$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.7499044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Virtanen25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bcf…75c6backed Griekspoor73c379.99$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.676841.2%28 W · 40 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Griekspoor79c379.43$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4337854%204 W · 174 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Griekspoor61c377.74$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.3262534.4%215 W · 410 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5067…a127backed Griekspoor60c376.92$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.7710756.1%60 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5661…6323backed Griekspoor60c367.34$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.1510267.6%69 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Virtanen41c365.85$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060641.6%252 W · 354 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97a0…da35backed Griekspoor55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6447946.3%222 W · 257 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd2b…4090backed Griekspoor58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.838246.3%38 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe289…c31abacked Griekspoor59c336.3$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.36259.7%37 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Griekspoor76c332.99$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.756,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Griekspoor58c321.06$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.061,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6863…92b4backed Griekspoor56c315$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.61080%8 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+38.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Griekspoor78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6646551.2%238 W · 227 L-23.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1816…06e9backed Griekspoor57c299.77$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.863759.5%22 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4781…336dbacked Griekspoor62c293.27$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.626462.1%164 W · 100 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Griekspoor60c290.56$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.823,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Griekspoor58c274.51$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2962952.1%328 W · 301 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53fa…1a66backed Griekspoor58c258.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.623275%24 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Griekspoor62c258.42$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.4546030.4%140 W · 320 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Griekspoor58c257.05$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.0550364.6%325 W · 178 L+0.6wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.