CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Arcade Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #6 Group B

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9eda39d69be685b61f2c890fe0be8970e2c0c2a33f34eca49bf11a53faec0385

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Abyssalof Abyssal, Arcade Esports
Resolved: Aug 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $20,463
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,657

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,463 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Abyssal	65c	8,077$5,215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,861.59	5,050	55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L	+117.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f9c…34d9backed Arcade Esports	35c	4,532$1,586 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,586.17	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+3.1wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Abyssal	64c	3,068$1,977 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,090.36	2,624	51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L	+18.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Abyssal	65c	2,492$1,620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$872.3	1,620	52.7%853 W · 767 L	+57.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Arcade Esports	36c	1,625$585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$584.77	221	42.5%94 W · 127 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Arcade Esports	36c	1,001$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.11	526	36.5%192 W · 334 L	+18.8wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd30…fc9bbacked Arcade Esports	35c	811.22$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.32	94	43.6%41 W · 53 L	-5.0wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Arcade Esports	35c	772.69$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.44	237	32.9%78 W · 159 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x920a…29e0backed Arcade Esports	36c	699.35$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.01	76	53.9%41 W · 35 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Abyssal	65c	615.19$402 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.28	465	55.1%256 W · 209 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe18d…9c5bbacked Arcade Esports	35c	559.44$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.03	159	51.6%82 W · 77 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed Arcade Esports	35c	542.81$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.98	470	54%254 W · 216 L	+12.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc700…31a1backed Arcade Esports	36c	510$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.6	71	40.8%29 W · 42 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Arcade Esports	29c	509.5$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.35	3,459	29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L	-279.9wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Abyssal	65c	500$325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175	46	60.9%28 W · 18 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Arcade Esports	35c	479.96$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.39	378	48.1%182 W · 196 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb5…2d03backed Arcade Esports	36c	456.17$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.94	82	40.2%33 W · 49 L	-7.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-22%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Arcade Esports	35c	357.23$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.03	259	34%88 W · 171 L	-8.6wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51e8…ebb7backed Arcade Esports	35c	305.14$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.8	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-2.9wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed Abyssal	72c	285.24$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.74	370	57%211 W · 159 L	+16.9wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Arcade Esports	35c	260$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	345	42.3%146 W · 199 L	-8.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Arcade Esports	35c	252.1$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.06	388	41.8%162 W · 226 L	+8.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Arcade Esports	34c	243$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.53	153	49.7%76 W · 77 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x059d…caf8backed Abyssal	67c	241.69$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.89	113	48.7%55 W · 58 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Abyssal	65c	235.69$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.49	991	48.3%479 W · 512 L	+9.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c4…3212backed Abyssal	66c	200$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68	317	61.2%194 W · 123 L	+22.1wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x089c…33dabacked Abyssal	64c	184.99$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.81	224	55.8%125 W · 99 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb191…28e0backed Arcade Esports	35c	171$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.85	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Arcade Esports	12c	166.53$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.38	1,352	52%703 W · 649 L	+29.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6558…e299backed Arcade Esports	35c	159.7$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.9	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-3.6wins	-0.19per pick	56cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Arcade Esports	28c	158.27$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.45	4,064	50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L	+69.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a0…18ffbacked Arcade Esports	36c	158.01$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.88	37	64.9%24 W · 13 L	+3.4wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7d8…a577backed Arcade Esports	35c	157.14$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	61	44.3%27 W · 34 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Abyssal	65c	152.75$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.75	135	45.2%61 W · 74 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed Abyssal	66c	151.52$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.52	773	51.2%396 W · 377 L	+24.2wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0e3…c760backed Arcade Esports	35c	151.43$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	79	35.4%28 W · 51 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2363…ed78backed Arcade Esports	36c	148.21$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.6	66	40.9%27 W · 39 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30da…3e7abacked Arcade Esports	35c	145$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.75	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+3.6wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Arcade Esports	36c	140.49$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.28	482	42.1%203 W · 279 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Arcade Esports	20c	136$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.28	2,508	41%1,029 W · 1,479 L	-115.5wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Arcade Esports	33c	126.26$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.67	358	39.4%141 W · 217 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42db…3816backed Arcade Esports	36c	125$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-4.4wins	-0.21per pick	45cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Arcade Esports	30c	120.67$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.92	4,933	37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L	-249.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Arcade Esports	33c	100.15$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.97	166	41%68 W · 98 L	-8.9wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed Arcade Esports	35c	97.32$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.06	312	41.3%129 W · 183 L	-14.0wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c6d…ab76backed Arcade Esports	34c	95$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.3	338	49.7%168 W · 170 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf095…58c6backed Abyssal	67c	90.6$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.99	103	56.3%58 W · 45 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Arcade Esports	31c	89.48$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.53	2,110	47.2%995 W · 1,115 L	-62.2wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Arcade Esports	36c	83.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-5.7wins	-0.12per pick	38cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Arcade Esports	33c	82.15$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.47	1,848	47.6%879 W · 969 L	-55.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Arcade Esports	35c	63.47$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.43	677	50.2%340 W · 337 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x62f7…bc3fbacked Arcade Esports	35c	62$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.7	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a23…da58backed Abyssal	80c	60$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.1	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+37%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed Abyssal	66c	57.58$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.58	838	56.1%470 W · 368 L	+31.1wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1b0…4d1ebacked Arcade Esports	36c	55.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-2.4wins	-0.16per pick	36cpaid	-65.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x55e0…e643backed Arcade Esports	26c	54.42$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.15per pick	37cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1612…9dedbacked Abyssal	65c	52$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.2	255	51.8%132 W · 123 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Arcade Esports	34c	48.59$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.52	550	39.6%218 W · 332 L	-20.7wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cf1…d7febacked Arcade Esports	35c	44.29$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	238	35.3%84 W · 154 L	-7.9wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x633c…54bebacked Arcade Esports	36c	41.22$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x080f…fcc2backed Arcade Esports	35c	41.1$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.39	82	50%41 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc95e…102abacked Arcade Esports	35c	40.51$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.18	87	55.2%48 W · 39 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Abyssal	73c	40$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.95	397	72.5%288 W · 109 L	+38.5wins	+0.10per pick	63cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x072e…df3abacked Arcade Esports	36c	38.12$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe893…afaebacked Arcade Esports	35c	33.56$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	114	44.7%51 W · 63 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Abyssal	66c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.2	1,068	55%587 W · 481 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe53b…fe03backed Abyssal	69c	28.98$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.98	413	72.2%298 W · 115 L	+25.0wins	+0.06per pick	66cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Abyssal	68c	26.47$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.57	173	60.1%104 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed Abyssal	67c	23.69$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.82	609	54%329 W · 280 L	+12.0wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5059…6d95backed Abyssal	67c	22.28$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.28	45	66.7%30 W · 15 L	+5.2wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Abyssal	64c	22.23$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe0a…b267backed Abyssal	64c	22.15$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.92	86	58.1%50 W · 36 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4207…fe8abacked Abyssal	68c	21.37$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.94	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb17a…f7e5backed Abyssal	77c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.64	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed Abyssal	61c	19.51$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.61	272	48.9%133 W · 139 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Abyssal	76c	17.91$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.33	1,630	43.2%704 W · 926 L	-32.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefe8…1edbbacked Abyssal	67c	15.92$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.2	101	51.5%52 W · 49 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Abyssal	67c	15.25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.03	422	55.7%235 W · 187 L	+13.5wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Arcade Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #6 Group Bthis page
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Arcade Esports - Map 2 WinnerAbyssal won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Map Handicap: Abyssal (-1.5) vs Arcade Esports (+1.5)Abyssal won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Arcade Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #6 Group B

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event