TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Black Phoenixof Lavked, Black Phoenix
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$168,178
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$186,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,178 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Black Phoenix53c7,090$3,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,318.131,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Lavked17c4,028$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.2857322.3%128 W · 445 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc653…300dbacked Lavked41c3,167$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3063246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0d8…8eafbacked Black Phoenix66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0204768.1%32 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Black Phoenix57c2,800$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.971,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Lavked56c2,666$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.781,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Lavked39c2,148$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.991,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Black Phoenix64c1,958$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.692,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa514…9c8fbacked Lavked33c1,818$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6005560%33 W · 22 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x849c…38c8backed Black Phoenix66c1,783$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.232356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed Black Phoenix62c1,754$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.1317951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Lavked54c1,625$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.2721146%97 W · 114 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked Lavked33c1,610$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.1913852.9%73 W · 65 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Black Phoenix59c1,598$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.485,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Black Phoenix46c1,500$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.321,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Lavked42c1,484$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.8675245.3%341 W · 411 L-1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Black Phoenix59c1,398$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.571,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5592…aedebacked Lavked23c1,305$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30019357%110 W · 83 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed Black Phoenix53c1,249$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.1843455.1%239 W · 195 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lavked43c1,230$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.025,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Lavked20c1,154$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.2294645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Lavked31c1,038$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.022,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Lavked38c920$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.649536.4%180 W · 315 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Lavked42c810.16$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.891,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb361…7348backed Black Phoenix63c794.53$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.531353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe35b…b542backed Lavked31c713.61$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.353935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked Lavked26c678.09$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.7212727.6%35 W · 92 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Lavked39c675.55$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.847,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed Black Phoenix45c654.89$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.6423356.2%131 W · 102 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Lavked41c649.35$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.171,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc236…e3d3backed Lavked45c621.81$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.023554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4c6…7457backed Black Phoenix25c527.77$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.835556.4%31 W · 24 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lavked53c519.71$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.871,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Lavked36c503$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.085,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2906…555abacked Black Phoenix62c472.39$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.523278.1%25 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+29.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed Lavked63c420$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.741475.4%312 W · 102 L+22.1wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked Black Phoenix64c404.61$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.725944.8%116 W · 143 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Black Phoenix57c401.74$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.042,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Lavked33c400$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6348851.8%253 W · 235 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf4…0492backed Lavked51c399.4$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Black Phoenix52c377.95$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.32,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Lavked36c369.88$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.182,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66da…69b0backed Black Phoenix80c352.61$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5228042.5%119 W · 161 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Lavked41c336.23$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.952,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Black Phoenix44c333.18$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.993,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Lavked60c327.22$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.3340542%170 W · 235 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4301…ac39backed Black Phoenix55c325.66$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.66850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Black Phoenix31c310.31$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.4555738.4%214 W · 343 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Lavked40c299.98$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.998641.9%36 W · 50 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-21.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x14b0…a142backed Lavked35c297$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.955244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb99b…984dbacked Black Phoenix75c284.29$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Black Phoenix35c270$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.643,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d87…df1dbacked Black Phoenix33c260$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17317545.7%80 W · 95 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Black Phoenix19c253.84$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.92,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56ac…f2eabacked Black Phoenix59c252.56$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.566858.8%40 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Black Phoenix60c244.4$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.7646555.1%256 W · 209 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Black Phoenix60c233.24$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.9161054.9%335 W · 275 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed Lavked17c223.53$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3827438.3%105 W · 169 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Lavked38c221.93$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.542,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55e0…e643backed Lavked34c212.89$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Black Phoenix61c206.32$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.7916641%68 W · 98 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32e5…ee75backed Black Phoenix34c205$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.751643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b27…0635backed Black Phoenix46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10831749.5%157 W · 160 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Black Phoenix67c199.99$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.621,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2c50backed Lavked46c199.79$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2972139.7%286 W · 435 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x059d…caf8backed Lavked39c197.51$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3211348.7%55 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe29b…d251backed Lavked19c197.04$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.71333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Lavked54c196.6$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6651755.9%289 W · 228 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Black Phoenix44c196.12$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.982,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed Lavked43c192.52$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2437057%211 W · 159 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x114e…dcefbacked Lavked70c184.66$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.694151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Black Phoenix52c165.82$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.184,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Lavked40c158.14$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7837848.1%182 W · 196 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x089c…33dabacked Lavked39c158$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5122455.8%125 W · 99 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90c7…d6babacked Lavked32c156.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Lavked56c154.7$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.634,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Black Phoenix53c154.42$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.022,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Black Phoenix66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.52560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Lavked46c151.22$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.114,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8616…3bb0backed Black Phoenix64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5455749.7%277 W · 280 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked Lavked38c139.05$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8432458%188 W · 136 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2b8…abf5backed Lavked42c135.71$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked Black Phoenix59c132.8$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.925042.4%106 W · 144 L+0.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d3…7fd3backed Lavked43c129.23$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.182240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Black Phoenix31c128.76$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.913537%50 W · 85 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-31.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Lavked27c127.75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.43,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Lavked46c124.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.081,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32c6…b25bbacked Black Phoenix42c119.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.161315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-63.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Lavked42c116.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4953034.7%184 W · 346 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Lavked43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030638.9%119 W · 187 L-1.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a1…9404backed Black Phoenix72c110.02$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.041225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Black Phoenix67c109$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9757641.1%237 W · 339 L-21.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed Black Phoenix37c108.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1124260.3%146 W · 96 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Lavked38c107.34$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5616445.7%75 W · 89 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Black Phoenix46c106.35$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.882,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1c47…2e55backed Lavked48c103.09$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4824047.9%115 W · 125 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Black Phoenix61c101.79$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.231,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed Lavked43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438836.4%32 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b9a…73fabacked Lavked37c96.59$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7439353.2%209 W · 184 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Lavked43c95.16$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9273948.4%358 W · 381 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.