Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f1cb87e7424983ea15f6433a5099e66dba227c14338903365dacd7be7ca23ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…b7a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,454$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed Yes | 36c | 1,397$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.48 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed Yes | 53c | 982.28$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.7 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 8c | 678.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked No | 53c | 592.39$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 47c | 487.53$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.95 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 48c | 375.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.51 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed Yes | 7c | 334$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked No | 69c | 321.28$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 56c | 243.5$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.14 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…a125backed No | 71c | 227.88$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…c2b6backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 127.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…e408backed Yes | 11c | 100.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 14c | 96.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 63c | 94.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…f126backed Yes | 40c | 89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…b736backed No | 60c | 89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 39c | 82.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…e85abacked No | 79c | 74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30a…7621backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc31…c060backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…dd7abacked Yes | 30c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a83…ac3dbacked No | 70c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed No | 53c | 50.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 76c | 42.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 38c | 41.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9defbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…4bbcbacked No | 60c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f7…2ec5backed Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dea…c7f7backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfef3…b66bbacked No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…6ad1backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…f55bbacked No | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419f…014cbacked No | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f6…2478backed No | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…7705backed Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…df8cbacked Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 56c | 25.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed No | 51c | 24.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…1de8backed No | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1a…0c45backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f1…4f08backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b5…7062backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…e0adbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9e…c061backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50f…fd6ebacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.