Euroleague · resolved market
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Valencia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f545e31c30040df1f0ff9fa1e7f821e5e289655f9ea8c462d714e9e6f80b2f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Bayern Munchenof FC Bayern Munchen, Valencia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Valencia | 60c | 6,781$4,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,068.7 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Valencia | 66c | 2,519$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.18 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 35c | 2,120$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.65 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed FC Bayern Munchen | 40c | 2,078$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.02 | 370 | 52.7%195 W · 175 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked FC Bayern Munchen | 42c | 1,477$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.29 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Valencia | 27c | 1,343$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.42 | 145 | 42.1%61 W · 84 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed FC Bayern Munchen | 38c | 972.6$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.01 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed FC Bayern Munchen | 53c | 709.78$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.7 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Valencia | 62c | 645.16$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed FC Bayern Munchen | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Valencia | 63c | 483.08$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.69 | 275 | 57.5%158 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed FC Bayern Munchen | 35c | 406.59$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…2f9cbacked Valencia | 43c | 399.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 34c | 364.76$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.8 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed FC Bayern Munchen | 61c | 344$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.35 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed FC Bayern Munchen | 34c | 317.82$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.76 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +10.8wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed Valencia | 65c | 278.71$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.16 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Valencia | 65c | 261.54$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Valencia | 22c | 260$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed FC Bayern Munchen | 79c | 256.93$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 265 | 44.5%118 W · 147 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed FC Bayern Munchen | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed FC Bayern Munchen | 62c | 238.91$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.43 | 122 | 68.9%84 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed FC Bayern Munchen | 43c | 206.71$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.33 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed FC Bayern Munchen | 49c | 204.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75d…9d01backed FC Bayern Munchen | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +6.3wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed FC Bayern Munchen | 33c | 187.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.72 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked FC Bayern Munchen | 44c | 186.56$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 120 | 41.7%50 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 58c | 179.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 181 | 44.2%80 W · 101 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x452d…f886backed Valencia | 22c | 169.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Valencia | 64c | 148.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 314 | 46.2%145 W · 169 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Valencia | 64c | 143$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Valencia | 66c | 138$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf89c…8937backed Valencia | 65c | 126.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3e…1543backed Valencia | 62c | 122.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Valencia | 29c | 118.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 435 | 43.7%190 W · 245 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…5fd6backed FC Bayern Munchen | 38c | 112.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bad…aa78backed FC Bayern Munchen | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Valencia | 63c | 84.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…d25abacked Valencia | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…6eb8backed Valencia | 62c | 76.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed FC Bayern Munchen | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Valencia | 47c | 71.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed FC Bayern Munchen | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…070cbacked Valencia | 53c | 62.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…64e1backed Valencia | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…584dbacked Valencia | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…3c8bbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 49c | 52.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked FC Bayern Munchen | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FC Bayern Munchen | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 316 | 51.6%163 W · 153 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…d6a2backed FC Bayern Munchen | 36c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 36c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed FC Bayern Munchen | 34c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…e4dabacked FC Bayern Munchen | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 34c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed FC Bayern Munchen | 36c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed FC Bayern Munchen | 34c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed FC Bayern Munchen | 72c | 30.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…2b8abacked Valencia | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Valencia | 64c | 30.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked FC Bayern Munchen | 36c | 28.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Valencia | 64c | 27.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…f9b4backed Valencia | 61c | 22.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.