TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vici Gamingof Vici Gaming, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$321,099

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $321,099 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Falcons57c21,452$12,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,283.5454556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed Vici Gaming48c20,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,400.329657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Vici Gaming46c18,856$8,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,182.3414840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Team Falcons53c13,850$7,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,334.1333041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Vici Gaming51c13,266$6,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,491.211,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Vici Gaming39c12,000$4,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,379.9689440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Vici Gaming47c8,554$3,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,558.4296557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Falcons53c6,597$3,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,517.2438049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Falcons46c5,387$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Team Falcons15c5,200$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.225431.5%17 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed Team Falcons53c4,543$2,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,426.5612156.2%68 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Vici Gaming32c4,082$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,768.492,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed Team Falcons70c3,940$2,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,752.651947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Team Falcons63c3,817$2,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40520156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Team Falcons55c3,572$1,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,951.049145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Vici Gaming54c3,310$1,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530.4511854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Vici Gaming44c2,510$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.8480443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49b…a5b8backed Team Falcons64c2,359$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5008655.8%48 W · 38 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7d…fbafbacked Vici Gaming49c2,225$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.31540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x641f…942bbacked Vici Gaming35c2,196$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.455549.1%27 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Vici Gaming52c2,184$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.443154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6135…efa0backed Team Falcons48c2,173$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.872842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Vici Gaming55c2,008$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.1260646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.5579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Falcons52c1,975$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.1251751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Team Falcons51c1,968$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00041655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons44c1,396$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.922,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Vici Gaming34c1,385$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.3456542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Team Falcons5c1,380$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.16132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons54c1,258$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.31,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Team Falcons50c1,195$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6007342.5%31 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked Team Falcons63c1,192$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75014657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed Team Falcons61c1,148$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.6419552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Team Falcons47c1,052$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.449959.6%59 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Vici Gaming48c1,050$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.6726453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Team Falcons65c1,020$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.2518661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6878…6cdbbacked Vici Gaming41c981.1$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.111942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…0a00backed Team Falcons62c971.42$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6009158.2%53 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb74c…b149backed Team Falcons15c950$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.96450%0 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Vici Gaming42c900$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52253652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Falcons71c880.62$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.2432854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Team Falcons54c846$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.8434443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Vici Gaming42c825.91$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.9110334%35 W · 68 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Vici Gaming44c817.75$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.8648539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b4c…e430backed Team Falcons52c802.07$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.084949%24 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Team Falcons52c800$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41623050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Falcons20c779.04$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4452243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x363a…4a8dbacked Team Falcons70c714.29$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008258.5%48 W · 34 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked Team Falcons55c707.05$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.1419251.6%99 W · 93 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Falcons63c704.98$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.385851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Team Falcons65c700$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45523650.4%119 W · 117 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Falcons51c651.23$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.6360552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Vici Gaming40c624$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.1477941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed Team Falcons54c621.38$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.2636051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Vici Gaming56c613.74$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.6455251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Team Falcons54c600$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32428549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Vici Gaming41c598.76$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.1713733.6%46 W · 91 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Team Falcons60c588.01$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.0433845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3fb…19c0backed Team Falcons58c560$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.86735.8%24 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Team Falcons54c555.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014538.6%56 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Team Falcons15c532$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.819147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x006a…14edbacked Team Falcons63c528.57$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33311960.5%72 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed Team Falcons54c514$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.5612547.2%59 W · 66 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Vici Gaming69c505.43$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1835850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Team Falcons54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27028544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Vici Gaming34c500$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33065441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Team Falcons54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27037047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Falcons49c498.29$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.0446649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x772c…3539backed Vici Gaming42c476.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.195543.6%24 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed Vici Gaming75c467.33$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.134768.1%32 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fd7…ee69backed Team Falcons55c456.98$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-63.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Team Falcons63c446.53$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9292056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Team Falcons52c440.1$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.826633.3%22 W · 44 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Falcons49c424.94$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.6266662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed Vici Gaming59c400$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.9219664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Team Falcons56c399.99$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22445457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x61e9…cb1bbacked Team Falcons67c399.59$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.332450%12 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Team Falcons64c394.06$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.146250%31 W · 31 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b73…45d9backed Team Falcons54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-40.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd8c…dfbebacked Vici Gaming72c365.37$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.374355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Team Falcons55c360$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.228244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Falcons70c352.37$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.1153844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f18…7818backed Team Falcons52c342.31$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1781315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x63a2…5bc1backed Vici Gaming44c340.91$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.9112638.9%49 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed Team Falcons60c337.49$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20111239.3%44 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Team Falcons53c335$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.5518745.5%85 W · 102 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Team Falcons6c333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Vici Gaming77c325.92$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4225457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Vici Gaming65c322.38$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.8381029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Team Falcons59c320$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.5314849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc03e…da65backed Vici Gaming51c303.73$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.56650%33 W · 33 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Vici Gaming39c302.83$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.186145.9%28 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Team Falcons35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1053540%14 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Vici Gaming43c299.69$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.8638855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Team Falcons62c295$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.917651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbf0…b959backed Team Falcons4c293.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d5…201abacked Team Falcons54c292.06$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.711118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick45cpaid-68.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a41…ea16backed Team Falcons70c287.84$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.492147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…08a4backed Team Falcons54c282.57$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.593650%18 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x106f…d28fbacked Team Falcons71c282.18$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.352646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.