NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa03a26a251b26ccfc531499ccfe2331927c289e3fa96104a4842ce01bd5fb192
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 49c | 3,570$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.24 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 43c | 1,745$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.12 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over | 59c | 1,461$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Under | 53c | 820$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 700$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.44 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 586.59$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…51c9backed Over | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 45c | 531.83$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.51 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 55c | 441.82$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1e…bb68backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…6207backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 45c | 199.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…c482backed Under | 55c | 163.37$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Over | 54c | 145$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Over | 54c | 129$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 52c | 89.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 86.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 50c | 74.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -12.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Over | 54c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…f52abacked Over | 55c | 59.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 59.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Over | 51c | 58.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Under | 53c | 55.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 51c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Under | 46c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…71d1backed Under | 53c | 47.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Over | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 55c | 38.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Under | 46c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Under | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Under | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Under | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Under | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…c5d2backed Under | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…edcebacked Under | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Under | 51c | 20.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Pelicans won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Lakers vs. PelicansLakers won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 125.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 243.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 244.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.