NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a0785d623778894a2b338829437469fcdd955bcd4cf27560251bb291849af9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 59c | 1,706$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.54 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 41c | 499.97$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.98 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 412.53$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.24 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 32c | 331.36$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.32 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 273.28$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 27c | 203.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed Under | 43c | 158.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.14 | 314 | 55.1%173 W · 141 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 37c | 107.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Over | 62c | 96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236d…5e45backed Over | 66c | 76.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Over | 61c | 56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Over | 62c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 59c | 52.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Under | 38c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc888…3566backed Over | 54c | 35.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 42c | 34.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 34c | 34.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Under | 38c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 40c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 36c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 63c | 24.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Pelicans won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Lakers vs. PelicansLakers won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 125.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 243.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 244.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.