Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa067d36d78e987f606ae807bc15012e713084296042cb40faf6a28197221d6b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,417$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.67 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…ed32backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +581.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…c18fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 645$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 589.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 384.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 33c | 333$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.28 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 286.35$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 237$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked Yes | 31c | 236.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 228.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 64c | 209.95$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 208.94$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 69c | 185.63$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 173.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 73c | 163.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed Yes | 65c | 159.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.62 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 157.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 73c | 131.49$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 117.41$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 108.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 38c | 106.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 67c | 99.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 66c | 91.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 68c | 88.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 28c | 84.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 75.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 74.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 39c | 70.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 68c | 69.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 31c | 66.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 65.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a0…5e93backed No | 61c | 65.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 46c | 59.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 54.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 50.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…b8fabacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 28c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed Yes | 31c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 64c | 35.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 66c | 34.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 67c | 34.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 31.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 63c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 78c | 30.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6b…268abacked Yes | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 38c | 27.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 76c | 26.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 40c | 25.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 23.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 59c | 19.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 34°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 35°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.