Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9c61029ad7a9d976318c9bb9af3bd7df556d801e768830030c612ba8da6c78e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 22c | 473.04$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 40c | 460.66$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.26 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 399.49$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 353.36$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 290.8$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.67 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 240$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 40c | 223.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.45 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…c18fbacked No | 27c | 215.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 184.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.58 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 166.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 64c | 162.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 41c | 149.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 144.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 142.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 130$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 110.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 34c | 110$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 102$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 101.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 101.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 84.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 35c | 75.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 36c | 75.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 67c | 75.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 70c | 70.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 21c | 69.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 66.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 61.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 47.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…50b7backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 37c | 39.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 30c | 39.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 37.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 35.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 67c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 32.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 31.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked Yes | 67c | 29.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 29.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 60c | 25.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 60c | 18.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x51b0…cc9cbacked Yes | 78c | 17.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 61c | 17.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 73c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…0693backed Yes | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 34°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 35°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.