Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa09833fbfbfa86c416051cb2cc79f98b1daf823de3ba82520f3d6180e3d28c1a

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Ohio State Buckeyesof Ohio State Buckeyes, Oregon Ducks
Resolved: Jan 9, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $48,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $55,947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,494 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Ohio State Buckeyes	48c	5,616$2,678 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,937.83	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Oregon Ducks	54c	3,000$1,620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,619.99	397	44.8%178 W · 219 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Oregon Ducks	54c	2,938$1,578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,577.73	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Oregon Ducks	54c	2,935$1,579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,579.16	2,896	50%1,448 W · 1,448 L	+71.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Oregon Ducks	1c	2,883$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.18	205	48.8%100 W · 105 L	+13.1wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Oregon Ducks	34c	2,647$892 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$891.88	120	45.8%55 W · 65 L	-8.3wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Ohio State Buckeyes	47c	2,472$1,153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,319.15	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed20…84f1backed Oregon Ducks	33c	1,600$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.99	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Ohio State Buckeyes	42c	1,200$504 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$696	244	51.2%125 W · 119 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Oregon Ducks	42c	1,128$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Ohio State Buckeyes	46c	1,011$469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$541.51	161	35.4%57 W · 104 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Ohio State Buckeyes	46c	997.59$459 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$538.7	158	61.4%97 W · 61 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ae…f107backed Oregon Ducks	36c	791.39$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.1	423	27.2%115 W · 308 L	-10.9wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Oregon Ducks	54c	771.99$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.16	1,391	44.1%613 W · 778 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked Oregon Ducks	14c	709.39$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.46	365	35.9%131 W · 234 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f79…1db4backed Ohio State Buckeyes	69c	700$484 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.15	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-71.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Ohio State Buckeyes	61c	667.45$409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.62	3,905	58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L	+165.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Ohio State Buckeyes	73c	628$460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+36.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ae…9c62backed Oregon Ducks	34c	592.65$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aed…37c0backed Ohio State Buckeyes	69c	580.35$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.35	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Oregon Ducks	30c	488.96$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.59	735	49.1%361 W · 374 L	-14.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Oregon Ducks	27c	443.32$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.7	140	21.4%30 W · 110 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Ohio State Buckeyes	44c	442.19$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.86	352	43.2%152 W · 200 L	-11.1wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Ohio State Buckeyes	46c	400$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217	1,260	43.3%545 W · 715 L	+34.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Ohio State Buckeyes	60c	387.68$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.37	1,887	45.2%853 W · 1,034 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Oregon Ducks	4c	374.43$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	94	12.8%12 W · 82 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Oregon Ducks	54c	370.37$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	162	53.1%86 W · 76 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Ohio State Buckeyes	46c	358$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.32	1,436	47.5%682 W · 754 L	-18.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Oregon Ducks	33c	347.86$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.89	2,124	50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L	+40.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Oregon Ducks	28c	333.02$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.51	456	44.5%203 W · 253 L	-16.8wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Oregon Ducks	55c	305$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.36	2,579	47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L	-42.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6cb…7b9bbacked Ohio State Buckeyes	67c	299.92$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.92	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x53c0…3f90backed Oregon Ducks	54c	293.3$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.11	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Ohio State Buckeyes	46c	277$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.58	605	48.9%296 W · 309 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Oregon Ducks	29c	265.63$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.48	323	43%139 W · 184 L	-18.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-23%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe70d…dd35backed Oregon Ducks	8c	228.97$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	44cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Ohio State Buckeyes	41c	225.37$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.97	1,633	47.3%773 W · 860 L	+25.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Oregon Ducks	38c	209.23$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.06	3,684	42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L	+32.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Ohio State Buckeyes	73c	207.32$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.98	1,531	50.1%767 W · 764 L	+34.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Ohio State Buckeyes	73c	203$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.81	2,003	53.7%1,076 W · 927 L	+101.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Oregon Ducks	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	841	47.4%399 W · 442 L	-13.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Oregon Ducks	56c	195.99$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.75	658	25.7%169 W · 489 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Oregon Ducks	6c	190$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.47	1,951	45.1%880 W · 1,071 L	-19.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x783c…6900backed Ohio State Buckeyes	44c	187.37$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.93	137	35%48 W · 89 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Ohio State Buckeyes	46c	174$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.96	1,074	47%505 W · 569 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaad7…5557backed Ohio State Buckeyes	45c	156.78$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.23	115	36.5%42 W · 73 L	-6.4wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d30…fad8backed Ohio State Buckeyes	65c	153.11$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.11	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe32c…db1bbacked Oregon Ducks	34c	140.32$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.64	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-13.8wins	-0.31per pick	38cpaid	-88.7%equal weight	28-0.20 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Ohio State Buckeyes	46c	115.87$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.57	2,048	32.7%670 W · 1,378 L	-16.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Ohio State Buckeyes	57c	114.81$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.82	383	43.6%167 W · 216 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Ohio State Buckeyes	66c	113.16$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.49	459	53.8%247 W · 212 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x954b…eb22backed Ohio State Buckeyes	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	62	35.5%22 W · 40 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-22%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Oregon Ducks	59c	89$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.51	327	51.7%169 W · 158 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Ohio State Buckeyes	62c	86.67$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.35	722	48.8%352 W · 370 L	-23.6wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Ohio State Buckeyes	70c	85.29$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.75	1,985	64.1%1,273 W · 712 L	+144.2wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x40d8…73d9backed Oregon Ducks	38c	74.89$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.46	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.19per pick	42cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Ohio State Buckeyes	48c	54.48$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.33	4,552	50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L	-36.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78b2…dd6dbacked Ohio State Buckeyes	65c	53.77$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.77	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f5…8be3backed Ohio State Buckeyes	60c	49.6$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.84	127	33.9%43 W · 84 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Ohio State Buckeyes	45c	43.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.85	148	46.6%69 W · 79 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52ae…1464backed Ohio State Buckeyes	74c	41.26$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.65	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72ea…d4f2backed Ohio State Buckeyes	49c	40.92$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.92	217	46.1%100 W · 117 L	-6.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c34…c8b8backed Ohio State Buckeyes	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	143	39.9%57 W · 86 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Oregon Ducks	54c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.4	225	52.9%119 W · 106 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Ohio State Buckeyes	48c	37$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.24	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0097…f101backed Ohio State Buckeyes	67c	35.43$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.64	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Ohio State Buckeyes	44c	35$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.7	152	50%76 W · 76 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc7…55f6backed Ohio State Buckeyes	53c	31.85$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.03	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x382c…2261backed Ohio State Buckeyes	65c	30.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.67	34	70.6%24 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	67cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81c7…be2ebacked Ohio State Buckeyes	66c	30.3$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.3	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f78…bfcabacked Oregon Ducks	35c	30.14$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	45	17.8%8 W · 37 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-61%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Ohio State Buckeyes	63c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.1	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6981…8ac5backed Ohio State Buckeyes	65c	26.51$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.28	28	50%14 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Oregon Ducks	46c	26.2$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.16	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Ohio State Buckeyes	68c	24.45$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.83	2,254	42.2%951 W · 1,303 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Ohio State Buckeyes	72c	22.61$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.33	117	43.6%51 W · 66 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Oregon Ducks	52c	21.61$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.24	990	45.6%451 W · 539 L	+9.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Oregon Ducks	57c	20.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.48	1,173	25.2%296 W · 877 L	-43.0wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducksthis page
Spread: Oregon Ducks (-2.5)Ohio State Buckeyes won
Spread: Oregon Ducks (-3.5)Ohio State Buckeyes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event