Us Politics · resolved market
10-year Treasury yield below 4% before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0c6cff16b0acb14295600f16463c869aa0426ccce1ab99c013d213067b8799d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67ec…157fbacked Yes | 1c | 33,118$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 16,090$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.78 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef1…2974backed Yes | 10c | 12,050$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 22c | 6,653$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.75 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 22c | 2,263$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f8…f705backed Yes | 27c | 1,600$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 26c | 1,105$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.37 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,062$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 19c | 1,017$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.9 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 21c | 698.57$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.07 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 14c | 686.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 24c | 507.49$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 382.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 22c | 377.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…37e4backed No | 75c | 320$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 79c | 280$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 248.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 32c | 226$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 7c | 218.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 24c | 199.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 71c | 176.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 75c | 107.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 100.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…2102backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…200dbacked Yes | 29c | 77.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 56 | 73.2%41 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 45.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 72c | 34.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed No | 68c | 29.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.