MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0e138a34190d25491589d0345653159e719bde70d60e7b8a6d43b161e9fa193
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked Under | 37c | 5,338$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,362.69 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 61c | 4,424$2,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,707.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 4,098$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 40c | 3,831$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,308.7 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Under | 39c | 2,262$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.82 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.06 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 61c | 2,000$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 61c | 1,964$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.44 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 76c | 1,626$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.26 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 1,479$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 48c | 1,404$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.99 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 62c | 1,058$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.9 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 80c | 501.58$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.58 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 58c | 500$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.44 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 61c | 464.71$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.18 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 63c | 460$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 68c | 422.36$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.85 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 301.31$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 78c | 211.52$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 22c | 108.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 63c | 106$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 48c | 98.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 45c | 88.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 62c | 83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 80.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 43c | 74.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 43c | 68.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d68…d64cbacked Under | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 74c | 55.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 41c | 54.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 65c | 53.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 36c | 49.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 77c | 46.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 75c | 44.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 70c | 39.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Over | 37c | 38.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 75c | 36.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Under | 69c | 32.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 65c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Under | 57c | 29.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3496…21e8backed Over | 53c | 28.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Under | 75c | 23.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 63c | 22.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 64c | 17.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…ef4fbacked Under | 79c | 16.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…cbf2backed Under | 79c | 16.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed Under | 75c | 14.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed Under | 75c | 14.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked Under | 75c | 14.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Under | 75c | 14.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed Under | 77c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.