MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x067b29de11fed6d7649839d44536dbc6c3572b0271ea02230e7c2a7877cf76d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb56d…d621backed No | 56c | 5,427$3,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,403.24 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 45c | 5,419$2,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,412.69 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed No | 54c | 1,454$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.79 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Yes | 47c | 1,024$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.37 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 40c | 900.4$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.94 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked No | 56c | 892.21$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.21 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 53c | 845$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.15 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…e2dbbacked No | 63c | 790.74$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.74 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Yes | 46c | 502.63$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.21 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a5…cd84backed Yes | 49c | 405.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed No | 54c | 367.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.84 | 346 | 50.9%176 W · 170 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked No | 54c | 304.19$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.93 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Yes | 45c | 301.77$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 68c | 289.5$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.23 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…5898backed Yes | 47c | 212.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 33c | 152.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 45c | 143.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed No | 73c | 136.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…7d39backed No | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 42c | 126.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes | 47c | 125.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 52c | 121$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 31c | 114$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…160bbacked No | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Yes | 46c | 108.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Yes | 45c | 107.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 44c | 104.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 55c | 102.66$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Yes | 48c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Yes | 48c | 97.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 53c | 73.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…0bbdbacked Yes | 46c | 70.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 45c | 67.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 37c | 57.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Yes | 44c | 56.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4189…fe26backed Yes | 48c | 52.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 43c | 48.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…6dccbacked No | 53c | 41.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b7…fd93backed Yes | 48c | 35.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 45c | 30.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 79c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Philliesthis page
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.