MLB · resolved market

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x772b81e200e83838856f8ba8ef422716e155e62d3bce0ad5d49193c1182743a1

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,208
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,167

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,208 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x32ed…f960backed Under	47c	8,292$3,907 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,907.18	6,123	55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L	+346.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under	46c	7,312$3,358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,358.29	8,594	52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L	+508.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	54c	7,309$3,944 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,365.41	10,979	51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L	+139.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	47c	6,180$2,907 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,272.37	12,328	46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L	-66.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	49c	3,713$1,812 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,901.18	8,192	46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L	+38.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over	53c	3,232$1,699 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,533.28	11,519	52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L	+213.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under	50c	1,818$909 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$909.06	2,588	61.5%1,591 W · 997 L	+72.3wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36c8…53a9backed Under	65c	1,500$975 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$974.99	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3449…abdfbacked Under	19c	1,371$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.51	86	24.4%21 W · 65 L	-7.7wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Under	55c	887$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$487.85	1,630	55.2%899 W · 731 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	60c	772.59$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310.11	8,403	47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L	+76.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	52c	634.27$330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303.78	9,819	46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L	+39.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Under	51c	606.91$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.98	726	55.4%402 W · 324 L	+40.2wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	53c	498$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.54	4,087	57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L	+66.3wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over	63c	477.13$299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.69	5,812	43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L	-188.1wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Under	58c	476.67$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.47	660	56.2%371 W · 289 L	+12.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over	50c	448$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224	1,843	43.6%804 W · 1,039 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Under	58c	331.59$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.32	1,133	57.2%648 W · 485 L	+35.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe325…34d0backed Over	50c	242$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-2.8wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under	47c	147.14$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.99	701	54.2%380 W · 321 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over	57c	134.13$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.68	2,243	57.6%1,293 W · 950 L	+37.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb922…1d3ebacked Over	50c	131$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.5	39	59%23 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under	52c	106.11$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.18	2,995	50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L	-36.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over	47c	103.54$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.92	6,305	48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L	+181.6wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	50c	101.96$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.96	1,874	52%975 W · 899 L	+51.6wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Under	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.4	160	53.1%85 W · 75 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ad…bce9backed Over	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over	67c	92$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	3,219	51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L	+148.2wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7268…78abbacked Under	34c	72.04$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.25	200	40%80 W · 120 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3603…22edbacked Under	62c	70$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.55	518	49.4%256 W · 262 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over	62c	59.14$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.61	2,546	45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L	-74.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Over	51c	48.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.56	773	53.9%417 W · 356 L	+35.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe393…f016backed Under	72c	47.78$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.2	49	38.8%19 W · 30 L	-4.0wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3894…decfbacked Under	51c	47.26$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.1	375	51.2%192 W · 183 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ca…870dbacked Under	53c	44.52$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.69	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-26%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over	45c	42.16$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.98	1,149	48.9%562 W · 587 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51e1…cbf2backed Under	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	67	43.3%29 W · 38 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0011…4cbabacked Over	66c	37.9$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	309	63.1%195 W · 114 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	66cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over	56c	37.36$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.44	694	47.6%330 W · 364 L	-9.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Under	54c	36.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.75	1,040	51.8%539 W · 501 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd53b…fc94backed Over	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	53	67.9%36 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	66cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x000a…6cf7backed Under	48c	34.96$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.78	252	60.7%153 W · 99 L	+17.1wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb042…6e9abacked Under	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x557b…163bbacked Under	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Over	50c	30.7$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.32	582	54.3%316 W · 266 L	+16.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdda1…7b5ebacked Under	58c	28.4$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.42	86	51.2%44 W · 42 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	59c	27.86$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	4,515	48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L	-46.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Under	49c	26.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	1,042	49.4%515 W · 527 L	+13.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…abe3backed Under	57c	25.66$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.65	351	49.3%173 W · 178 L	-12.9wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cd6…3806backed Over	49c	24.75$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.67	177	52.5%93 W · 84 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc85…aa54backed Under	46c	23.78$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.94	242	43%104 W · 138 L	-12.2wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Under	54c	21.96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.86	2,223	55.4%1,231 W · 992 L	+73.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d50…d283backed Over	49c	20.67$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.44	178	42.7%76 W · 102 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ba4…6de0backed Over	51c	20.08$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.84	209	45%94 W · 115 L	-11.1wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x449e…f0a9backed Under	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over	63c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.32	1,708	49.9%852 W · 856 L	-17.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Over	53c	19$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.93	830	53%440 W · 390 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Over	57c	19$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.12	228	48.2%110 W · 118 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7a8…9c50backed Under	54c	18.94$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-6.0wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5this page
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 3.5Over won
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event