MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87035b3d9e2a452968b35ddaea6254af024da99c7f3143391f2e01a393cbe8ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 43c | 21,105$9,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,008.51 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 11,590$6,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,932.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 56c | 2,703$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.8 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 1,765$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 56c | 1,153$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.32 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 1,135$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 57c | 1,005$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.1 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 43c | 965.93$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.35 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 56c | 776.2$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.53 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 755.98$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.63 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff3…b0ecbacked Under | 57c | 700$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 58c | 384.79$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.61 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Under | 56c | 370.68$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.1 | 134 | 47.8%64 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 43c | 359.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.79 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 58c | 353.07$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.81 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 57c | 288.51$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.06 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Over | 45c | 283.72$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.79 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 248.65$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 56c | 235.71$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.71 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…160bbacked Under | 57c | 184.21$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.21 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 179$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…fe26backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 57c | 99.06$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Over | 44c | 92.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Under | 58c | 86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 58c | 80.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 70c | 73.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 56c | 56.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 55.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 44.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 44c | 32.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…25b2backed Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 58c | 25.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Under | 78c | 15.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.