Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa146cd18529aaee922026b130ed436d3e41ef3bbfcdf49fc92b9b34d977b3868
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 571.99$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 28c | 500$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.37 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 8c | 492.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 397.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 27c | 376.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 332.2$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 240.98$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 238.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 207.12$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 9c | 183.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 63c | 176.59$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 16c | 157.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 71c | 147.03$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a40…840ebacked Yes | 26c | 144.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 140.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 71c | 132.89$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 112.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 111.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 108.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 25c | 104.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 103$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 35c | 90.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 83.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 25c | 80.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 25c | 78.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 20c | 64.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 23c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 47.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 29c | 47.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 28c | 46.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 44.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 41.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 36.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 26.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 24.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 72c | 24.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 72c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…ae07backed No | 78c | 19.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…3277backed No | 74c | 17.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 73c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.