Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb7d8e81942b342bc376deb399ec266ea2280f815e346c2b3f63b18a2e52e47b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…1ab1backed No | 3c | 3,300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 41c | 986.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.31 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 19c | 777.08$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.95 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 702.81$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 30c | 687.98$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.39 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 66c | 545.55$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.33 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 37c | 500$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.27 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 386.84$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 34c | 353.64$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.73 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd4…b2f2backed No | 34c | 314.83$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 309.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 48c | 285.6$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.46 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 276.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 251.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 45c | 240$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 218.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 32c | 217.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 214$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 70c | 208.17$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 205.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 28c | 202.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 74c | 164.94$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 70c | 157.73$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 70c | 151.93$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 63c | 146.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 143.04$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 28c | 129.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 120.24$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 28c | 118.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 77c | 117.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 53c | 114.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 56c | 113.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 111.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 70c | 101.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 94.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 75c | 93.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 84.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 46c | 83.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 76.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 70c | 76.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 67c | 74.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 42c | 74.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 57c | 72.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 64c | 71.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 32c | 68.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 25c | 66.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a40…840ebacked Yes | 29c | 66.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 66c | 66.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 54c | 66.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 65.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2868backed Yes | 77c | 65.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 65.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ff…6494backed Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 70c | 64.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 65c | 62.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 25c | 60.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…a6b5backed Yes | 26c | 53.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 45c | 52.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked No | 56c | 51.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 79c | 50.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 49.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 69c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 43c | 47.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 56c | 43.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 42.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 41.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 27c | 41.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 36c | 37.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 36c | 37.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 34c | 35.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 60c | 35.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 69c | 29.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…cf4abacked Yes | 65c | 25.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 72c | 21.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…c64fbacked Yes | 73c | 20.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.