Earnings · resolved market
Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa15dbb6882f583235b417a23ba5b12f41899b1bf78f6a917d11a658e3df96c20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 45c | 773.46$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.38 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…4449backed No | 4c | 463.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 30c | 440.3$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 52c | 404.16$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.69 | 29 | 89.7%26 W · 3 L | +7.2wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 61c | 390.03$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.45 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 43c | 329.98$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.29 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 60c | 316.7$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 53c | 306.59$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.49 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 56c | 275$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 36c | 249.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 42c | 215.59$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 54c | 199.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 22c | 192.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…f622backed Yes | 68c | 175.04$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 51c | 173.73$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 58c | 159.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 44c | 154.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe107…1a5abacked Yes | 66c | 152.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed No | 42c | 147.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 36c | 147.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 46c | 108.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 52c | 101$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 100.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d5…55b0backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 51c | 99.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…7d21backed Yes | 58c | 90.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…daeebacked Yes | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 64.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…e451backed Yes | 55c | 62.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked Yes | 48c | 60.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…9593backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…65e8backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…ddeebacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3857…6605backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf60c…c6cfbacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…d4b3backed Yes | 60c | 33.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9769…7cd7backed Yes | 60c | 33.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4666…36d5backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…6a15backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9e…e2cdbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…f940backed Yes | 61c | 30.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked Yes | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…8aacbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…7207backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x376e…d63dbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce88…7423backed Yes | 62c | 19.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.