Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1835ce4a41fee902ee1ab1e526cc24daeb108fed38a57ceaf89a3f292767d25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 419.86$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.55 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 13c | 287.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 250$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 5c | 206.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 187$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 167.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 159.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 77c | 138.83$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 37c | 136.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 37c | 135.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 122$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 121$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 18c | 118.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 19c | 116.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 104.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 11c | 99.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 28c | 92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 20c | 85.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 78.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 23c | 77.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8e…cc2bbacked Yes | 35c | 73.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 67c | 72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 20c | 68.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 36c | 60.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 20c | 59.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 57.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 34c | 56.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 19c | 55.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 42c | 55.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 40c | 53.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 51.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 35c | 48.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 46.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 45.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 34c | 45.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 39.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 38c | 39.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 30.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 68c | 28.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4a…5800backed No | 80c | 27.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 62c | 26.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…3700backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 65c | 23.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 67c | 22.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 65c | 22.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22c…8aadbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 62c | 21.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0515…f02bbacked No | 79c | 21.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed No | 62c | 19.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 18.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…b89cbacked No | 80c | 16.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 63c | 16.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 63c | 16.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 14.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…f2dabacked No | 80c | 14.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 14.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.