Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x008ca370111ebe14c02854a874d9d47ee6795ddf96104517ae8c358739e3f1db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 6c | 1,394$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 16c | 988.34$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.18 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 3c | 582.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 41c | 300.26$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.08 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 279.09$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.89 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 36c | 176.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.24 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 175.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 14c | 174.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 174$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 35c | 167.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.02 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 152.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 64c | 141.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 28c | 133.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 122.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 117.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 113$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 105.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 105.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 67c | 104.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 102.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 23c | 99.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 23c | 94.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 29c | 85.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 16c | 84.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 82.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 29c | 78.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 35c | 78.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 71.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 36c | 70.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 39c | 69.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 31c | 68.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 35c | 66.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8e…cc2bbacked Yes | 28c | 62.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 62.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 51c | 59.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 57.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 57.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ca…1b86backed Yes | 30c | 56.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 53c | 56.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 71c | 49.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 47.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 41c | 44.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…9ad0backed Yes | 62c | 42.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e51…dd4fbacked Yes | 48c | 41.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 39c | 40.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 51c | 33.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 70c | 30.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 27.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 70c | 21.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 72c | 19.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 70c | 19.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 71c | 18.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 72c | 16.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 61c | 16.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 14.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.