Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa18c3da844b72b8b147d124fe65389d7e1e099ff87cdb5b6b399263204b61c90

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $308,447
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $130,968

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,447 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	0c	29,999$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	24,122$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.23	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	15,184$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.37	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes	0c	10,400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	2c	8,001$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.02	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	7,125$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.9	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	1c	6,608$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.08	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	5,600$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.1	552	5.6%31 W · 521 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	1c	4,347$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.9	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	3,792$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.1	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,751$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.68	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	2,766$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.46	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08b4…624ebacked Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	125	8.8%11 W · 114 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4c…4277backed Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	67	10.4%7 W · 60 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+55.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63c4…f595backed Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	77	10.4%8 W · 69 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f6e…4ec7backed Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	54	11.1%6 W · 48 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,226$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.68	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	3c	1,271$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.26	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes	2c	1,262$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	85	30.6%26 W · 59 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,028$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	941.53$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.51	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	919.08$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.45	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	2c	799.97$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	9c	700$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.41	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	6c	699.99$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e10…a68abacked Yes	4c	681.58$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	3c	661.83$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.68	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9916…8088backed Yes	7c	616.55$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.16	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	4c	548.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4efc…dd07backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce1f…0669backed Yes	7c	258.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.13	40	45%18 W · 22 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4597…403fbacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa15c…2c27backed Yes	8c	161.89$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.95	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ed8…2e77backed Yes	10c	102$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event