Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa554cb8a34dcdc0d6dba8a71a9abcfa818ef4e0a8b3d1b7f38a6af24ab5bf2bc

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $396,190
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $242,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $396,190 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	30,940$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.81	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	0c	20,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd83…680abacked Yes	0c	14,475$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	10,800$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d5…ee5cbacked Yes	0c	10,231$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.49	35	31.4%11 W · 24 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d7…2ffbbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	3c	7,000$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	1c	6,894$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.94	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	0c	6,236$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.18	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	6,091$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.83	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	5,481$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.04	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdba…e7a2backed Yes	0c	5,204$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	1c	4,763$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.6	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	3,685$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.03	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	3,585$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.52	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	3,503$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.5	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	3,165$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.64	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	3,100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.2	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	1c	2,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	0c	2,238$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,895$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b2…b87dbacked Yes	2c	1,678$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…27efbacked Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	5cpaid	+27%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	1,407$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.93	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,284$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.52	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63c4…f595backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	77	10.4%8 W · 69 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes	1c	923.06$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	85	30.6%26 W · 59 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf06d…26f7backed Yes	2c	900$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	110	11.8%13 W · 97 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc1…480abacked Yes	1c	900$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	5c	799.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	759.89$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.92	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	700.03$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	4c	599.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.55	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca43…fcabbacked Yes	2c	500.34$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	12c	445.13$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.68	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	4c	426.01$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.92	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9916…8088backed Yes	12c	416$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.92	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	10c	399.98$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed8…2e77backed Yes	13c	383.82$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	4c	325.02$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7df…0723backed Yes	7c	320$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4597…403fbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce1f…0669backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	45%18 W · 22 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e10…a68abacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa15c…2c27backed Yes	12c	160$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe9c…54f8backed Yes	16c	154$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.64	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	12c	119.18$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.13	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes	13c	115.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	13c	102.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.88	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	233	14.2%33 W · 200 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event