NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1f5d3f871cbf142902bb61ca4a570d16aaeb797b129b7a433105644d2f9cc1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,065 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 1,681$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.28 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 889$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.95 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Over | 57c | 880$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.6 | 348 | 55.2%192 W · 156 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 2c | 779.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 23c | 670.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.92 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 65c | 576.27$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.89 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 488.35$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.59 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 30c | 288.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.7 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 39c | 286.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.06 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 68c | 275.91$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.62 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 12c | 266.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.41 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4819…c342backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 40c | 198.11$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 55c | 176.03$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Over | 56c | 113.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 58c | 103.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 96.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…3ef0backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 263 | 45.6%120 W · 143 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 44c | 79.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9023…1143backed Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…700bbacked Over | 59c | 68.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Over | 69c | 59.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…e854backed Over | 57c | 52.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +131%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 48c | 51.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -12.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…2723backed Under | 51c | 43.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e58…bd66backed Under | 43c | 42.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 42c | 39.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2830…c47bbacked Over | 57c | 36.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f3…7ccbbacked Over | 58c | 30.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 44c | 27.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5886…b8ffbacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -8.0wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…395ebacked Over | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 76c | 14.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Hawks vs. RocketsRockets won
- Hawks vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Reed Sheppard: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.