NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa241055a650c9141dac7154baf63241e74af4c748a8850f92326fab5801a97bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 28c | 9,813$2,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,747.6 | 248 | 37.9%94 W · 154 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 72c | 5,567$4,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.75 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…34f5backed Over | 74c | 2,237$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 72c | 1,090$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.78 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 72c | 1,051$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.3 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb5…7ce9backed Under | 27c | 1,007$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 72c | 934.25$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.59 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 73c | 684.3$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.76 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 72c | 673.18$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.49 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 73c | 657.8$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.61 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…3038backed Over | 74c | 654.05$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.05 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e3…3337backed Under | 26c | 495$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 72c | 303.7$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a0…ff20backed Over | 73c | 270.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 71c | 215$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…f975backed Under | 35c | 209.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 65c | 199.83$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 72c | 195.87$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Over | 73c | 150$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 72c | 120.3$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 208 | 55.8%116 W · 92 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 25c | 112.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13c…6b2fbacked Over | 73c | 105.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 73c | 103.53$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 27c | 89.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 27c | 84.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 37c | 81.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…6441backed Under | 27c | 79.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…c7c3backed Under | 31c | 76.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 31c | 69.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Under | 17c | 69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 37c | 56.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Over | 72c | 55.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…a694backed Under | 28c | 51.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe19b…ac05backed Over | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 72c | 32.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5this page
- Canadiens vs. HurricanesHurricanes won
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Hurricanes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.