TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #17 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ex-RUBYof Johnny Speeds, ex-RUBY
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,442

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,442 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Johnny Speeds19c5,354$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.353,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30f4…8c1ebacked ex-RUBY53c4,226$2,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,991.0327947.7%133 W · 146 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed ex-RUBY55c3,845$2,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.4157358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed ex-RUBY53c3,077$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.384958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Johnny Speeds51c2,894$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.246,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Johnny Speeds46c2,708$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.8346243.3%200 W · 262 L+1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked ex-RUBY53c2,268$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.4884454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Johnny Speeds53c1,597$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.3337646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Johnny Speeds54c1,575$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.911,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f49…463abacked ex-RUBY38c1,500$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93017945.3%81 W · 98 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Johnny Speeds39c879.41$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.921233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-49.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed ex-RUBY49c824.41$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.4598856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc006…3c94backed Johnny Speeds47c823.4$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3875738.6%22 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-26.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Johnny Speeds48c651.94$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.7510445.2%47 W · 57 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed Johnny Speeds34c649.35$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.597755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed Johnny Speeds47c601.08$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.4150043%215 W · 285 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Johnny Speeds76c568.11$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.6280744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Johnny Speeds48c525.07$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.2587244.8%391 W · 481 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-RUBY49c513.5$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.75,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked ex-RUBY46c505$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.762,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Johnny Speeds52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26029851.3%153 W · 145 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d1…f540backed ex-RUBY46c432$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.2817849.4%88 W · 90 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed Johnny Speeds54c420$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.457536%27 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Johnny Speeds51c411.5$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.875742.1%24 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0e…ad94backed Johnny Speeds48c384.28$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18511365.5%74 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked ex-RUBY54c369.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.271752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x861f…a189backed ex-RUBY45c356.38$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5892152.6%484 W · 437 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked ex-RUBY42c345$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.0554346.2%251 W · 292 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Johnny Speeds50c340.28$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.834,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Johnny Speeds67c326.08$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.4978963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed ex-RUBY50c324.7$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.8738037.4%142 W · 238 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Johnny Speeds46c308.17$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7615141.7%63 W · 88 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Johnny Speeds46c300.6$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2825337.9%96 W · 157 L-14.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed ex-RUBY45c300$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1655952.5%31 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x423f…eedcbacked ex-RUBY46c296.2$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.3940655.7%226 W · 180 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed ex-RUBY43c295$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4129244.5%130 W · 162 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked ex-RUBY44c284$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.1349745.9%228 W · 269 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba0d…9a6ebacked Johnny Speeds46c282$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.726858.8%40 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Johnny Speeds65c274.81$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.642,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0baf…4647backed Johnny Speeds47c267.53$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.7440%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Johnny Speeds46c265.22$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12211646.6%54 W · 62 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked Johnny Speeds49c253.02$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9146447.6%221 W · 243 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Johnny Speeds46c244.84$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6326958.4%157 W · 112 L+20.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8945…640bbacked Johnny Speeds49c237.67$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.4126257.6%151 W · 111 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed ex-RUBY46c233$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.7946344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked ex-RUBY46c231$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.3648948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5978…aec4backed ex-RUBY49c213.24$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.5122938%87 W · 142 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed ex-RUBY31c205.87$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.5415641%64 W · 92 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked ex-RUBY51c200$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9970038.9%272 W · 428 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Johnny Speeds47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9432844.5%146 W · 182 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Johnny Speeds53c187.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10052456.3%295 W · 229 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Johnny Speeds47c186.4$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8759343.2%256 W · 337 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde7f…d8dbbacked Johnny Speeds52c182.5$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.920744%91 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3123…abffbacked ex-RUBY48c171$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick62cpaid+70.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef20…8f64backed Johnny Speeds46c166.3$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.512334.1%42 W · 81 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked ex-RUBY49c163$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.598052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0734…9cdabacked ex-RUBY48c163$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb126…9848backed ex-RUBY49c161.22$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.2210251%52 W · 50 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Johnny Speeds49c160.65$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.31,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29f8…ffa9backed Johnny Speeds29c160.62$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2443239.1%169 W · 263 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50c4…5b56backed Johnny Speeds49c154$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe69b…141dbacked Johnny Speeds48c153.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9b…3de2backed ex-RUBY48c150$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788842%37 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb673…d240backed ex-RUBY46c148.7$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.32347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e6e…d6ddbacked ex-RUBY48c148$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.963100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Johnny Speeds44c147.17$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.925,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ff7…4176backed Johnny Speeds46c143$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.784944.9%22 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94fd…5eb2backed ex-RUBY46c137$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.98475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+35.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Johnny Speeds43c135$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2430335.6%108 W · 195 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ce48backed Johnny Speeds54c133.3$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.989646.9%45 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe71c…79aebacked Johnny Speeds80c125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Johnny Speeds27c123$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.171,30426.5%345 W · 959 L-89.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc90d…e7d6backed Johnny Speeds49c122.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc995…2224backed ex-RUBY49c122.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.458644.2%38 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7baf…4acabacked ex-RUBY52c115.38$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.38560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Johnny Speeds9c114.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2128434.9%99 W · 185 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dbb…2e57backed ex-RUBY53c113.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.213073.3%22 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+26.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfcb5…1331backed Johnny Speeds50c110$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d5f…1d83backed ex-RUBY50c110$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2a2…23a0backed ex-RUBY39c106.46$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.463729.7%11 W · 26 L-7.0wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-37.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked ex-RUBY49c103.81$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.511837.3%44 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked ex-RUBY53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe87…71fcbacked Johnny Speeds50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked ex-RUBY48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5224943.8%109 W · 140 L-1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1fa…f3bebacked ex-RUBY25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758366.3%55 W · 28 L+11.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+27%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x045a…e4c7backed ex-RUBY50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b8…d47dbacked ex-RUBY50c99.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7660857.2%348 W · 260 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3335…f6debacked Johnny Speeds67c92.77$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5215770.1%110 W · 47 L+13.2wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef71…898bbacked Johnny Speeds46c92$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6912946.5%60 W · 69 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7127…5bb5backed ex-RUBY48c90.18$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.941662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked ex-RUBY48c90$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.11,28137.8%484 W · 797 L+5.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Johnny Speeds49c90$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4491648.9%448 W · 468 L+4.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked ex-RUBY44c84.65$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6529547.8%141 W · 154 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed ex-RUBY54c83.6$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4616750.9%85 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d1a…9bdbbacked Johnny Speeds52c80$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.21266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ace…3afdbacked Johnny Speeds48c75.19$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.091060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+36.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed ex-RUBY51c75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9939239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1676…6630backed Johnny Speeds52c73$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Johnny Speeds39c69.76$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.43,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x891b…67b5backed ex-RUBY50c68.2$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.24332.6%14 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.