TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Brewers vs. Dodgers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dodgersof Brewers, Dodgers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,053,309
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,015,494

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,053,309 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 558 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5afb…4511backed Brewers39c1,214,802$471,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471,672.791241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Brewers39c1,000,260$387,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387,764.651338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1d9…5ee1backed Dodgers61c943,221$575,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367,856.11850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e25…d49ebacked Dodgers61c611,138$372,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238,343.79450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Dodgers61c485,488$296,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189,340.473450%17 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Brewers40c374,950$149,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149,979.97955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Brewers38c345,418$130,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130,321.436653%35 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Dodgers61c251,525$153,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98,094.757753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Dodgers61c157,662$95,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,709.389462.8%59 W · 35 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Brewers40c110,665$43,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,720.6930255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Dodgers62c100,000$62,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,0006058.3%35 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Brewers36c98,300$35,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,527.781,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Dodgers63c79,484$50,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,327.3563152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Dodgers62c75,000$46,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,499.9953150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Dodgers61c65,102$39,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,589.866855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Brewers40c41,546$16,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,583.237058.6%41 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd16a…7691backed Brewers39c40,000$15,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,599.99825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-54%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Brewers39c39,977$15,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,590.174965.3%32 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Brewers39c31,271$12,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,177.982356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Dodgers61c28,711$17,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,251.6355053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Dodgers72c27,556$19,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,645.8515353.6%82 W · 71 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Brewers39c26,278$10,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,248.243145.2%14 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Dodgers63c25,000$15,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,349.967363%46 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fce…2229backed Brewers41c24,278$10,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0151136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-35.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7412…0ccbbacked Dodgers61c23,567$14,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,191.132445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Brewers40c20,520$8,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,285.4219540%78 W · 117 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Brewers39c20,409$7,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,959.5316551.5%85 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Dodgers62c20,079$12,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,630.8343949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Dodgers75c20,050$15,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,952.0214153.9%76 W · 65 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Brewers39c18,617$7,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,260.6978445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe61f…8beebacked Dodgers61c17,965$10,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,006.21475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Dodgers61c13,633$8,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,263.751,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Dodgers61c13,005$7,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,072.031060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bb1…8455backed Brewers39c12,092$4,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,710.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef1b…8697backed Brewers30c11,687$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50014042.9%60 W · 80 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Dodgers66c11,564$7,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,944.84445.5%20 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Brewers6c11,549$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.5544749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Brewers39c10,256$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.841,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Brewers39c10,133$3,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,952.141,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Dodgers64c9,192$5,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,309.2111544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Brewers39c9,000$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5101266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Brewers33c8,920$2,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,954.739,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Dodgers61c8,630$5,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,365.892445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Dodgers61c8,500$5,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3152937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-31.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Brewers39c8,100$3,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1591,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Dodgers73c7,700$5,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,05945248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Dodgers64c6,862$4,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,444.49875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+46.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Dodgers63c5,210$3,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,952.873149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Brewers37c4,403$1,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.041963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Dodgers63c4,296$2,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.67548%36 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Dodgers61c4,160$2,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622.46556.9%37 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Brewers41c4,159$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.2654048.3%261 W · 279 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Brewers40c4,109$1,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,628.132,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcce5…bdafbacked Dodgers63c4,088$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,528.25944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Brewers39c4,081$1,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.614949.7%74 W · 75 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Brewers44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7609135.2%32 W · 59 L-12.0wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xc5ce…f74dbacked Brewers41c3,832$1,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.882334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Brewers36c3,772$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.6920747.8%99 W · 108 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98d8…9197backed Brewers37c3,537$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a9…4379backed Brewers37c3,500$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…322fbacked Dodgers64c3,500$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Dodgers61c3,454$2,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,335.0511551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa592…648fbacked Dodgers64c3,400$2,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35d3…047bbacked Brewers37c3,400$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…5327backed Dodgers64c3,300$2,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfba…3585backed Brewers37c3,300$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f40…48ccbacked Brewers37c3,294$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa392…1415backed Dodgers64c3,125$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1252259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Dodgers68c3,069$2,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.763748.6%18 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Brewers37c3,056$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Brewers39c3,045$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.368356.6%47 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd14a…e912backed Brewers36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa1d5…bc1bbacked Brewers37c2,850$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b6…3e04backed Brewers37c2,849$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Dodgers64c2,770$1,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.243654.8%239 W · 197 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d2…86fdbacked Dodgers60c2,686$1,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.553100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd11…1071backed Brewers37c2,585$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Dodgers62c2,485$1,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.6922142.1%93 W · 128 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked Brewers37c2,373$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.921625%4 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bba…ea6bbacked Dodgers61c2,365$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.02450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b17…abcdbacked Brewers41c2,245$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7695…f919backed Dodgers64c2,226$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e2e…d2afbacked Dodgers64c2,144$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Brewers39c2,117$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.631,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe823…1633backed Dodgers64c2,115$1,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Brewers33c2,074$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.081,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce54…90bcbacked Brewers37c2,063$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x669c…6c54backed Dodgers64c2,063$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f27…6ae9backed Dodgers64c2,033$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x707b…69f2backed Dodgers64c2,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7205745.6%26 W · 31 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-18%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x220b…5f83backed Dodgers64c1,999$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d32…d46dbacked Brewers37c1,987$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2738…3a0ebacked Dodgers64c1,980$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dfd…3aa8backed Brewers16c1,975$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.1812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-83.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f3b…e349backed Brewers27c1,931$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick47cpaid-76.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed Dodgers70c1,906$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.225240.1%101 W · 151 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e0…4659backed Brewers37c1,880$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6327…e181backed Brewers37c1,850$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Brewers42c1,846$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.141020%2 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-66.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Brewers39c1,795$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.0573352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.