WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3780c7ada71bb4df4f1049a4710ffec80dca93eabbe580b94872897d4cc6e08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Mysticsof Indiana Fever, Washington Mystics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4852…67c4backed Washington Mystics | 48c | 2,690$1,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 2,235$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.55 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 1,741$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.29 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 1,320$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.28 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Mystics | 47c | 659.08$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.15 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Indiana Fever | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 68c | 558.74$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.89 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Washington Mystics | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Indiana Fever | 44c | 471.42$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.19 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Mystics | 57c | 430.36$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.87 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…8d7abacked Washington Mystics | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Mystics | 27c | 287$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.51 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Washington Mystics | 48c | 284.3$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.89 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Indiana Fever | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Mystics | 28c | 276.71$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.23 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Mystics | 47c | 268.63$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.37 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Indiana Fever | 52c | 192.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 155.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Washington Mystics | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Washington Mystics | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Washington Mystics | 48c | 92.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Washington Mystics | 36c | 69.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Indiana Fever | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Washington Mystics | 55c | 45.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Washington Mystics | 29c | 40.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Washington Mystics | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Indiana Fever | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Mystics | 54c | 30.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Washington Mystics | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 149 | 36.9%55 W · 94 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Indiana Fever | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Washington Mystics | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 25.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Washington Mystics | 48c | 23.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 21.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked Washington Mystics | 54c | 21.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Washington Mystics | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-4.5)this page
- Indiana Fever vs. Washington MysticsIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5)Washington Mystics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.