TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Indiana Feverof Indiana Fever, Washington Mystics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$405,475
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$406,064

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $405,475 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Washington Mystics34c247,005$84,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,313.28937.1%33 W · 56 L-8.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever66c82,587$54,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,026.811,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Indiana Fever65c65,609$42,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,691.9578548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Indiana Fever67c29,862$20,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,854.4636154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Indiana Fever68c29,607$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,606.692839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Indiana Fever66c13,383$8,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,539.4489349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Mystics12c11,251$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.511,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Washington Mystics34c10,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.8613950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Indiana Fever65c9,091$5,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,181.912365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Indiana Fever66c7,364$4,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,476.8223245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Mystics32c6,149$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.9883748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Indiana Fever67c5,937$3,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,959.315100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Indiana Fever65c4,994$3,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,747.824766%31 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Washington Mystics33c4,452$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.7540550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ebb…cb1abacked Indiana Fever68c2,960$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.83580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Washington Mystics1c2,900$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1960%0 W · 96 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Washington Mystics10c2,538$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.1931043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Washington Mystics33c2,526$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.514353.8%77 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Mystics6c2,359$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5426147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Indiana Fever66c1,868$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.2332049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Washington Mystics10c1,818$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.62615.4%4 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Indiana Fever75c1,797$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.0685158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Indiana Fever76c1,673$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.4636750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70dc…1dfdbacked Indiana Fever68c1,500$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.786467.2%43 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Washington Mystics32c1,446$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.0319458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Indiana Fever58c1,400$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.459318.3%17 W · 76 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Indiana Fever65c1,300$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.014047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Washington Mystics31c1,262$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.7646247%217 W · 245 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Washington Mystics3c1,160$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1568.9%5 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Washington Mystics13c1,136$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.673534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb820…8135backed Washington Mystics35c1,080$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Washington Mystics34c1,032$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.8714346.2%66 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Washington Mystics5c1,028$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.824852.4%130 W · 118 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Washington Mystics9c977.93$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4219428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd51…1041backed Indiana Fever67c888.06$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.064763.8%30 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Washington Mystics27c880.18$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.5434726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Indiana Fever62c859.67$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.595538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5400…8a89backed Washington Mystics6c783.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-83%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Indiana Fever66c748$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.3292248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34b8…81afbacked Indiana Fever67c746.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.275844.8%26 W · 32 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc187…775fbacked Indiana Fever78c722.74$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Washington Mystics34c699.5$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.83666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+32.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76dc…61f4backed Washington Mystics22c696.74$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Washington Mystics17c675.31$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6425246%116 W · 136 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Washington Mystics18c630$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.46746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Indiana Fever67c595.21$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.2122967.7%155 W · 74 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3709…bb80backed Indiana Fever52c580.86$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Washington Mystics3c580$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8557.3%4 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d4c…fc89backed Indiana Fever70c571.64$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.641968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Washington Mystics17c546$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.694148.8%20 W · 21 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x11a1…8597backed Indiana Fever75c532.34$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.464463.6%28 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Indiana Fever67c525.87$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.543265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Washington Mystics32c518.23$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.837240.3%29 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed Indiana Fever77c510$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.471662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Washington Mystics10c506.52$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.229129.7%27 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Washington Mystics5c499.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521440.7%87 W · 127 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Indiana Fever42c489.9$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.9615346.4%71 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08be…bea8backed Indiana Fever79c459.07$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.07650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Washington Mystics29c450$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+180.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ba3…9a44backed Washington Mystics29c450$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+900%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd870…8a7ebacked Indiana Fever73c438.5$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ec…aa22backed Washington Mystics28c412.44$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.19475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick27cpaid+182%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Washington Mystics23c411.63$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2434918.3%64 W · 285 L-49.5wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-58.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x4d7a…70b6backed Washington Mystics27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Washington Mystics28c396$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.842951.7%15 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Indiana Fever77c395$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.755364.2%34 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Indiana Fever67c390.02$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.715862.1%36 W · 22 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Washington Mystics24c387.69$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6066…e2b2backed Washington Mystics29c379.09$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.1840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Indiana Fever66c356.22$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.816450%82 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Washington Mystics13c355.94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.515748.4%76 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Indiana Fever60c340.01$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.1831847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca2…088ebacked Washington Mystics24c336$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.842751.9%14 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x815b…a1c7backed Washington Mystics9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4021…1a51backed Washington Mystics6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98ce…d417backed Indiana Fever67c329.85$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.851172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Washington Mystics26c322.12$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.274156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Washington Mystics16c307.01$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.921446.3%99 W · 115 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Washington Mystics20c305.4$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2338744.7%173 W · 214 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83f9…d399backed Indiana Fever72c305.29$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.252975.9%22 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf83d…367dbacked Indiana Fever66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Indiana Fever66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1028733.3%29 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c4c…9f95backed Washington Mystics16c299.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Indiana Fever67c299.98$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.992853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d29…f683backed Indiana Fever67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.512360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Indiana Fever60c278.34$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.685431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Indiana Fever73c275.35$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4513346.6%62 W · 71 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Washington Mystics12c272.25$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.67908.9%8 W · 82 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x629c…3f90backed Washington Mystics29c254.36$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.752475%18 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+33.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Washington Mystics7c231.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0319142.4%81 W · 110 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Washington Mystics46c231.23$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.871233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-29.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Indiana Fever73c230.31$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2328140.6%114 W · 167 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61ce…e4b0backed Washington Mystics33c224.38$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Washington Mystics34c222.29$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.534746.8%22 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+29.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Washington Mystics6c214$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.843933.3%13 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Indiana Fever63c204.21$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9419031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Washington Mystics20c200$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1514936.9%55 W · 94 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a24…90a1backed Indiana Fever66c195.78$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.783262.5%20 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Washington Mystics51c193.95$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.264148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Washington Mystics13c193$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.399444.7%42 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.