CS2 · resolved market
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa41a14c0ad75641a8377541c47f15ddb1c6edeb186c7dfb7f4aababe74cae57a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FURIAof FURIA, Aurora Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked Aurora Gaming | 63c | 1,098$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692 | 357 | 45.4%162 W · 195 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed FURIA | 37c | 1,077$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.82 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed FURIA | 39c | 769.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.23 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Aurora Gaming | 61c | 499.42$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.31 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked FURIA | 33c | 483.94$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.24 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +8.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked FURIA | 37c | 440.55$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.15 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Aurora Gaming | 62c | 440.45$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.08 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed Aurora Gaming | 62c | 411$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.82 | 213 | 51.2%109 W · 104 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Aurora Gaming | 64c | 319.24$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.74 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ed…9bb9backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 309.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 280.72$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Aurora Gaming | 61c | 269.23$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.23 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…fb3dbacked Aurora Gaming | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 354 | 66.1%234 W · 120 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed FURIA | 37c | 163.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.21 | 500 | 51.4%257 W · 243 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked FURIA | 34c | 152.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.55 | 224 | 47.8%107 W · 117 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed FURIA | 36c | 104.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Aurora Gaming | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3a…bdffbacked FURIA | 38c | 92.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb6…f256backed Aurora Gaming | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…ec07backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed FURIA | 37c | 65.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked FURIA | 45c | 61.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…3369backed FURIA | 37c | 61.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked FURIA | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…e92fbacked FURIA | 42c | 46.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed FURIA | 38c | 32.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 347 | 50.7%176 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b3…01babacked FURIA | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Aurora Gaming | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Aurora Gaming | 57c | 21.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsFURIA won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 WinnerFURIA won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 WinnerFURIA won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)FURIA won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)FURIA won
- Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)FURIA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.