CS2 · resolved market
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30be7f88cd909fabb58fa9c60bb27a738cd43394e3316847bbda07fd2a21e172
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe738…df65backed Under | 49c | 1,305$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.52 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…6b53backed Over | 51c | 1,088$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 49c | 999.91$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.96 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Over | 50c | 404.56$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.28 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 188 | 48.4%91 W · 97 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…845cbacked Over | 51c | 241.18$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.18 | 302 | 36.8%111 W · 191 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…5dabbacked Under | 30c | 158.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Over | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb6…f256backed Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…25c3backed Over | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 152 | 41.4%63 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e1…c97fbacked Over | 51c | 119.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…03d4backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Under | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…e7f0backed Over | 51c | 92.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 65c | 79.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed Under | 29c | 67.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 213 | 51.2%109 W · 104 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1c…8c49backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76ff…a353backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e9…8662backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Under | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…74dfbacked Under | 50c | 31.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…8c1cbacked Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 236 | 54.7%129 W · 107 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9972…6d7abacked Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…f611backed Under | 53c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af1…7d5abacked Over | 51c | 21.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsFURIA won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 WinnerFURIA won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 WinnerFURIA won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)FURIA won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)FURIA won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)FURIA won
- Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)FURIA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.