CS2 · resolved market
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x102b8007d5f69ae3523d14780592c7657314482520567d09843d35d4e2f19ff3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FURIAof FURIA, Aurora Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked FURIA | 35c | 1,622$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.03 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Aurora Gaming | 58c | 1,188$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.02 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +8.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed FURIA | 42c | 1,114$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.29 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 1,067$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.53 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked FURIA | 39c | 974.89$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.27 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 749.99$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.99 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ed…9bb9backed Aurora Gaming | 62c | 688.27$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.39 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…97c2backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked FURIA | 38c | 411.62$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.2 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a2…e0b6backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 361.23$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Aurora Gaming | 61c | 355.74$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 545 | 43.5%237 W · 308 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd976…7636backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 301.05$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.58 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71df…9aa0backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 267.79$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.06 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked FURIA | 39c | 256$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c1…489fbacked FURIA | 42c | 198.95$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.39 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Aurora Gaming | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed FURIA | 35c | 97.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed FURIA | 43c | 88.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 309 | 39.2%121 W · 188 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb6…f256backed Aurora Gaming | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3a…bdffbacked FURIA | 42c | 76.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab4…b18bbacked FURIA | 42c | 73.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed FURIA | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed FURIA | 35c | 57.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 500 | 51.4%257 W · 243 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Aurora Gaming | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…3369backed FURIA | 35c | 45.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…c1dbbacked Aurora Gaming | 64c | 23.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 480 | 52.3%251 W · 229 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…cbffbacked Aurora Gaming | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed FURIA | 79c | 17.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 312 | 41.3%129 W · 183 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsFURIA won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 WinnerFURIA won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 WinnerFURIA won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)FURIA won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)FURIA won
- Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)FURIA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.