World Politics · resolved market
Will Labor win the Seat of Bennelong in the 2025 Australian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa432762750ba283ea346b345cd8645344591d9eab81cc31f0da9e61d9f9883ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $225,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $226,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7c3…6a46backed No | 49c | 38,621$18,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,924.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c8…1b65backed Yes | 51c | 38,621$19,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,924.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…0e7abacked No | 45c | 34,203$15,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,391.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8b…e496backed Yes | 55c | 34,203$18,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,391.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9268…6ce0backed No | 33c | 32,927$10,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,865.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…8b9dbacked Yes | 67c | 32,927$22,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,865.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…dcecbacked Yes | 58c | 1,563$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 53c | 1,384$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.22 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 66c | 1,363$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.56 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…0c46backed Yes | 53c | 1,317$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.87 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x496b…1c57backed Yes | 65c | 1,231$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 45c | 1,013$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.04 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…d100backed Yes | 59c | 680.91$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.18 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 55c | 660.52$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.78 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked No | 47c | 628.3$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.3 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 37c | 536.87$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ed51backed No | 34c | 494.71$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 33c | 370.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.37 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 53c | 326$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.22 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 246$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 68c | 196$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 65c | 177$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed Yes | 66c | 140$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 34c | 125.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…bc07backed No | 47c | 107.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 37c | 107$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97f8…5436backed Yes | 54c | 100.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2b…1da7backed Yes | 68c | 100.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…9297backed Yes | 55c | 91.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca7…2469backed No | 47c | 86.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 46c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc700…6827backed Yes | 53c | 74.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 69c | 63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15b6…6059backed No | 45c | 51.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eaf…2e38backed Yes | 65c | 45.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 39c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…a9b2backed Yes | 56c | 35.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a599backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…050cbacked No | 38c | 30.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…8949backed Yes | 64c | 30.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xface…426ebacked Yes | 64c | 30.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 63c | 30.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Yes | 58c | 29.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba35…21b1backed Yes | 65c | 26.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…5dc9backed Yes | 55c | 25.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…0b99backed Yes | 65c | 21.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f5…c427backed Yes | 65c | 16.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Labor win the Seat of Bennelong in the 2025 Australian Election?this page
- Will FUSION win the Seat of Bennelong in the 2025 Australian Election?No won
- Will Trumpet of Patriots win the Seat of Bennelong in the 2025 Australian Election?No won
- Will the Liberals win the Seat of Bennelong in the 2025 Australian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.