Champions League · resolved market
Will Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa463878b19ad18bd091bcdcde5ce8e9afa6f85e87055363b61d8bc007f252189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed No | 74c | 10,679$7,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,776.54 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No | 74c | 9,229$6,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.55 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 26c | 8,432$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.5 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 20c | 3,656$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.51 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 2,634$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.97 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 22c | 2,300$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.94 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 26c | 1,977$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.09 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Yes | 4c | 1,348$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 7c | 1,339$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f7…9541backed Yes | 12c | 1,262$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x291b…2667backed No | 73c | 999.83$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.95 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd337…6fd3backed Yes | 13c | 918.83$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 22c | 745.56$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.9 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 75c | 663$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.99 | 214 | 60.7%130 W · 84 L | +21.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 26c | 384.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 225 | 47.6%107 W · 118 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1703backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 11c | 336.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…2b38backed Yes | 11c | 309.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 146 | 50.7%74 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf2…8f6bbacked Yes | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 73c | 230$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…f5cfbacked Yes | 11c | 212.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 26c | 200.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 129 | 38%49 W · 80 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Yes | 11c | 183.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Yes | 27c | 144.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 27c | 136$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 298 | 46.3%138 W · 160 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 10c | 125.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 139 | 31.7%44 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 9c | 113.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…45e0backed Yes | 21c | 102.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…6779backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3e…ef94backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 26c | 94.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1652…a501backed Yes | 23c | 88.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 73c | 86.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 60 | 76.7%46 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 18c | 80.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 217 | 45.6%99 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked No | 74c | 79.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed Yes | 27c | 74.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…0f1cbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ce…c9b5backed Yes | 27c | 55.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…3a5cbacked No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8e…22c3backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed8…897bbacked No | 74c | 52.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…1734backed Yes | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd1…3380backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 29.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 76cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 74c | 22.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 21.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 72c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-20?No won
- Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-01-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.