Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa537bca6f15e00ff6ff7149778c5f613c03b66f795a257b192ec9b17fda5d2c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd10c…0645backed Yes | 12c | 16,759$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 7c | 2,274$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.77 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 12c | 2,213$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.24 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed No | 75c | 2,035$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.43 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf59c…a682backed Yes | 12c | 1,832$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes | 11c | 1,819$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b4…a52ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,627$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 12c | 1,618$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,388$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.9 | 150 | 71.3%107 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…970abacked Yes | 11c | 1,300$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 12c | 937.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.13 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7065…5292backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed No | 67c | 728.93$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 11c | 636.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 8c | 541.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -11.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 20c | 527.52$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.03 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…f8c8backed Yes | 11c | 514.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…9b71backed Yes | 44c | 513.24$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.72 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 12c | 446.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…b4dabacked Yes | 36c | 434.88$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ff…35ccbacked Yes | 12c | 419.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb408…e303backed No | 66c | 404.57$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.57 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 12c | 384.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 78c | 380.02$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Yes | 12c | 357.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…c645backed Yes | 36c | 315.44$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 16c | 305$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Yes | 12c | 291.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yes | 12c | 291.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Yes | 12c | 282.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -6.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 11c | 253.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Yes | 33c | 242.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Yes | 11c | 234.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x903e…2829backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f23…4761backed Yes | 14c | 221.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…02b4backed Yes | 14c | 220.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13ad…241bbacked Yes | 15c | 197.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Yes | 15c | 188.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 10c | 167.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 11c | 161.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…bab9backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…ed83backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 11c | 145.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…1668backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…ae5bbacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…3409backed Yes | 13c | 135.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…cec1backed Yes | 13c | 119.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…c7e8backed Yes | 9c | 112.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…b202backed Yes | 12c | 111.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ee…bc1abacked Yes | 33c | 109.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…77b5backed Yes | 34c | 102.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b41…23d9backed Yes | 12c | 101.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 75c | 99.25$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 54c | 96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 20c | 88.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +207.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b94…c347backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 56c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…aaf4backed No | 67c | 71.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 56c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0900…6258backed Yes | 33c | 46.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8977…6579backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed No | 67c | 42.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked No | 54c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 178 | 17.4%31 W · 147 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb6…8cdebacked Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af9…5bf2backed No | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-02?Yes won
- Will FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.