IPO · resolved market
Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa56f5015873ae73629cbfd23ff340f9f3c3dd2eb79df5e4658cdb7fee594f1ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,731$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed No | 79c | 1,290$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…5662backed Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 10c | 755.02$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed Yes | 19c | 700$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 4c | 521.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed Yes | 20c | 470$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 7c | 325.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8846backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…2a79backed Yes | 26c | 230$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f1…2287backed No | 80c | 202$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…5b24backed Yes | 24c | 163.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 22c | 160.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 72c | 111$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111e…f237backed Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…8496backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…2a47backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a84…6a45backed Yes | 19c | 64.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 78c | 40.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.9wins | -0.37per pick | 43cpaid | -92%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5b0fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…b623backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331c…1710backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $10B and $11B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $11B and $12B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $12B and $13B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $7B and $8B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $8B and $9B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be less than $7B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Subhub’s market cap be at least $13B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.