IPO · resolved market
Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $8B and $9B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e07c844d68f3c3f76f431b489c44a2c76c1c6a67fe6887a38b21f65aa5816b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…8734backed Yes | 23c | 3,642$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,811.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +338.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 2c | 2,798$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed Yes | 17c | 2,716$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed No | 76c | 2,500$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 34c | 1,639$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.42 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…5662backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed Yes | 17c | 450.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 34c | 423.98$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.69 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 67c | 379.07$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 24c | 340$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.2 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6087…53c2backed Yes | 67c | 300.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…cd41backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 26c | 258.17$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.9wins | -0.37per pick | 43cpaid | -92%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 7c | 256.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x406b…4c29backed Yes | 77c | 208$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 58c | 197.84$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 20c | 196.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 13c | 193.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.45 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc99b…45dabacked Yes | 40c | 178.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f7…8e4ebacked Yes | 78c | 154.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd374…5544backed Yes | 63c | 125.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 41c | 121.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a84…6a45backed Yes | 14c | 93.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…5b24backed Yes | 28c | 87.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…6b0bbacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed Yes | 76c | 73.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…622ebacked Yes | 73c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d24…e006backed No | 32c | 62.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5b0fbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…71b7backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 28c | 44.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…7364backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 67c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 61c | 27.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…b623backed No | 60c | 23.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e2…73bebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $8B and $9B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $10B and $11B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $11B and $12B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $12B and $13B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $7B and $8B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be less than $7B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Subhub’s market cap be at least $13B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.