IPO · resolved market
Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $7B and $8B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85a37432df4e41e09eb69dfa002b5cff11f64b4be13166d57dabfd84b07bc768
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 13c | 1,491$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c7…e1d5backed Yes | 3c | 860.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 8c | 680$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed Yes | 9c | 567$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 8c | 555$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Yes | 9c | 314.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 21c | 248.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 16c | 220$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 170.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd374…5544backed Yes | 59c | 170.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…4a23backed Yes | 55c | 118.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 18c | 107$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.9wins | -0.37per pick | 43cpaid | -92%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x251f…55a2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 55c | 91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x406b…4c29backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb89…85febacked Yes | 55c | 84.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…11d9backed Yes | 33c | 70.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…622ebacked Yes | 41c | 63.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4e…89edbacked Yes | 32c | 63.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473a…5f09backed Yes | 37c | 59.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b69…fda4backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 71c | 24.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $7B and $8B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $10B and $11B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $11B and $12B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $12B and $13B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $8B and $9B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Stubhub’s market cap be less than $7B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Subhub’s market cap be at least $13B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.