TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Reds vs. Royals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Royalsof Reds, Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,965
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,965 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x889e…09e0backed Royals49c20,458$10,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,433.6627948.4%135 W · 144 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Royals54c17,643$9,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,180.9124551.8%127 W · 118 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Reds51c14,418$7,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,353.1820850%104 W · 104 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Reds48c13,776$6,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,664.651,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Reds45c7,965$3,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,587.342,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Reds52c7,416$3,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,856.1350852.6%267 W · 241 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Royals49c6,200$3,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,16721941.1%90 W · 129 L-19.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdec3…40acbacked Royals50c5,000$2,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,510.77666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Royals47c3,951$1,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,074.6143654.8%239 W · 197 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Reds28c3,213$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.789,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Reds18c3,000$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.0769249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Reds52c2,526$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.6923752.7%125 W · 112 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3890…39e3backed Reds51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0202642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8e2…322bbacked Royals49c1,996$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.962133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Reds33c1,869$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.191,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Reds54c1,852$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00021356.3%120 W · 93 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Reds51c1,831$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.881,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Reds48c1,786$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.3897950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals47c1,340$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.012,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Reds51c1,016$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.3276456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Reds52c960.28$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50088549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed Reds51c854$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.5425550.6%129 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Royals48c850$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44220450.5%103 W · 101 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Reds53c722.17$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.7514047.9%67 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Royals70c682.81$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.4163942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Reds25c606.38$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020523.4%48 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Reds53c567.53$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.7918349.2%90 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Royals48c499.99$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.9993240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Reds12c492$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.417927.9%50 W · 129 L-15.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-50.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x944a…a9adbacked Reds23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003630.6%11 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Royals48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6791749.9%458 W · 459 L-3.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d2…46e6backed Reds22c411.77$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9030928.5%88 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Reds50c407.17$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.6733349.5%165 W · 168 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Royals50c368$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1841,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd386…1887backed Reds37c327.04$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12219233.3%64 W · 128 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Royals48c324.48$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.738543.5%37 W · 48 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Reds17c320$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9320…95ddbacked Royals47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15913555.6%75 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Reds51c299.99$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1532835.7%10 W · 18 L-5.9wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-37.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Reds51c271.09$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2624553.5%131 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Reds53c264.53$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.211446.5%53 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Reds51c250$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.549250.4%248 W · 244 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Reds29c219.56$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7470841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1d…c011backed Royals48c199.99$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.9913848.6%67 W · 71 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6f…0142backed Reds53c188.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012549.6%62 W · 63 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Reds51c175.51$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0443250.7%219 W · 213 L+10.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Reds50c131$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8365549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Royals74c126.36$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.431,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Reds47c119.52$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.171,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Royals49c112.24$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2478454.5%427 W · 357 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcc…5ef7backed Royals50c107.52$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd29a…c155backed Royals48c107$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.58475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9128…0b5abacked Royals50c106.1$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bc2…3c8dbacked Reds52c104.4$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b2c…284cbacked Royals58c103.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4528453.9%153 W · 131 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e38…5d36backed Reds52c103.13$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7f…7d7fbacked Reds21c102.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2215256.6%86 W · 66 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Reds16c102.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.496133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb069…11d1backed Reds53c101.74$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x399d…01dabacked Reds50c100.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0211757.3%67 W · 50 L+9.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Reds52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Reds54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5492754.9%509 W · 418 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33b8…5186backed Reds53c98.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73f8…b4bbbacked Royals49c98.43$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcec…c3c6backed Reds53c98.3$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Reds35c98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.416,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0ca…4304backed Royals50c97.36$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.68450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0af6…7399backed Royals49c97.29$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.62560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+35.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c6a…91a5backed Royals50c96.38$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f36…4e9cbacked Reds53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013254.5%72 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2a…7bb2backed Reds53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Royals48c93.79$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.911,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x919f…9dd0backed Reds53c92.45$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfb1…b150backed Royals49c91.41$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Royals56c90.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6186751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2c0…e101backed Royals49c88.49$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.133100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7c8…24dcbacked Royals50c87.53$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.924738.3%18 W · 29 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-24%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2202…b157backed Reds52c87.42$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4630%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7622…f505backed Reds53c86.55$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+67.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x120c…89d4backed Reds27c86.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.35757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4002…7251backed Reds53c84.94$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.02450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Royals49c81.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6349348.3%238 W · 255 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Reds51c78.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2940352.4%211 W · 192 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f18…77c9backed Reds27c76.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Royals53c76.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1413852.2%72 W · 66 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec75…2e8fbacked Reds54c76$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.047749.4%38 W · 39 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d6d…aeb9backed Reds21c66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.865839.7%23 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Reds45c63.31$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3680680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x951e…37d9backed Reds19c62.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ea…a4b6backed Reds50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309148.4%44 W · 47 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f19…72d9backed Royals47c59.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.841649%204 W · 212 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Reds51c58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.582,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Reds52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2594455.3%522 W · 422 L-2.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Reds48c44.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2152542.5%223 W · 302 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd78…230fbacked Royals75c41.95$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.491968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Royals48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.677652.6%40 W · 36 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Reds52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.86142.6%26 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9599…be88backed Reds53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025511.8%30 W · 225 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.