NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Bucks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5e861098b6cd1d6e5b1110667033d0fa384b0f51bd444f17f7a3c69dbe03af3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Nuggets, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Nuggets | 43c | 2,345$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.99 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Nuggets | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 304 | 43.1%131 W · 173 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Bucks | 71c | 1,127$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.76 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Nuggets | 44c | 1,124$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Bucks | 58c | 1,088$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.86 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Nuggets | 42c | 822.27$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.19 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Bucks | 59c | 560.59$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.58 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Nuggets | 6c | 552.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Bucks | 58c | 499.95$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.98 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Nuggets | 30c | 350.13$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 370 | 11.4%42 W · 328 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Bucks | 53c | 321.28$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bucks | 56c | 311.53$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.7 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…5ba5backed Nuggets | 48c | 302.52$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Bucks | 53c | 300.42$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.56 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Bucks | 47c | 300$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 667 | 32.4%216 W · 451 L | +41.8wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…51c6backed Bucks | 62c | 268.34$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Bucks | 58c | 251.98$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.53 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Nuggets | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 160 | 42.5%68 W · 92 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…3373backed Nuggets | 43c | 228.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…1b48backed Nuggets | 46c | 218.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nuggets | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 893 | 53%473 W · 420 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Bucks | 48c | 212.14$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.06 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Nuggets | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Nuggets | 41c | 199.73$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Bucks | 56c | 174.44$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 275 | 46.9%129 W · 146 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bucks | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Nuggets | 49c | 167$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1462…51efbacked Nuggets | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…d3f1backed Bucks | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Bucks | 61c | 136.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…ff05backed Bucks | 54c | 134$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c2…5b6bbacked Nuggets | 46c | 134$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a7…2710backed Bucks | 53c | 132$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0127…7addbacked Nuggets | 47c | 132$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Nuggets | 47c | 126.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9c…2256backed Bucks | 47c | 125$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…894abacked Nuggets | 53c | 125$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bucks | 57c | 114.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nuggets | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Nuggets | 42c | 104.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc8…1a55backed Bucks | 59c | 100.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…66a7backed Nuggets | 43c | 100.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Nuggets | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Bucks | 58c | 94.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…9801backed Bucks | 58c | 93.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Bucks | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 285 | 48.4%138 W · 147 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Nuggets | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed Bucks | 69c | 72.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 341 | 69.5%237 W · 104 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Nuggets | 71c | 65.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…7ad7backed Bucks | 27c | 62.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Nuggets | 52c | 60.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked Nuggets | 78c | 58.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…0af7backed Bucks | 47c | 51.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Nuggets | 44c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | -20.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eca…6882backed Nuggets | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 159 | 36.5%58 W · 101 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Nuggets | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 229 | 39.7%91 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Bucks | 30c | 49.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Nuggets | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked Nuggets | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Bucks | 29c | 46.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…637bbacked Bucks | 59c | 42.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…773dbacked Nuggets | 42c | 40.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…415ebacked Nuggets | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 316 | 31.6%100 W · 216 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Bucks | 55c | 36.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 184 | 50.5%93 W · 91 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…fcd9backed Bucks | 61c | 35.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf38d…52a2backed Bucks | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd3…06a8backed Nuggets | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Bucks | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d68…c379backed Bucks | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nuggets | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Nuggets | 60c | 30.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 205 | 47.8%98 W · 107 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…7deebacked Nuggets | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe97e…ce2abacked Nuggets | 40c | 29.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nuggets | 43c | 29.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…6df7backed Bucks | 63c | 28.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9c…0fe6backed Bucks | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Bucks | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Nuggets | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 234 | 38.9%91 W · 143 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Bucks | 58c | 19.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.